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The Current Transcript for November 6, 2020

Host: Matt Galloway

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

[Music: Theme]

SOUNDCLIP

We were winning in all the key locations by a lot, actually, and then our numbers started miraculously getting whittled away in secret.

MATT GALLOWAY: It was an extraordinary statement, even by Donald Trump's standards. Last night as the vote count continued and with his early lead in key states like Georgia disappearing, the U.S. president baselessly claimed that the election was being stolen from him. U.S. news networks cut away from him mid speech to dispute his false allegations. What happens now? We will tackle that and what all of this means for Canada coming up in 30 minutes.

SOUNDCLIP

We have no doubt when the count is finished, Senator Harris and I will be declared the winners. So I ask everyone to stay calm, all people to stay calm. The process is working. The count is being completed.

MG: This U.S. exercise in democracy is gaining attention around the world. And for all its current complications, it's the kind of thing the protesters in Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong could only dream of. Protesters have banded together online in those countries demanding democratic reform. In an hour inside the Milk Tea Alliance protests online and now in the streets. Plus, Globe and Mail health reporter André Picard on the politicisation of Covid second wave in Canada. We'll start, though, where that spike in cases is hitting hardest here from doctors across this country. But what's keeping them up at night? Good morning. I'm Matt Galloway. And this is The Current.

[Music: Theme]

A look at the spike in COVID-19 cases across Canada

Guests: Amy Greer, Dr. Anand Kumar, Dr. Birinder Narang

MG: Covid-19 cases are still rising in many parts of Canada, and as we all start to spend more time indoors, public health officials are worried. This morning, we're checking in on areas of the country where case counts are high. Starting on the West Coast. In British Columbia, average daily case numbers have doubled over the past month. This is BC's health minister, Adrian Dix, speaking earlier this week.

SOUNDCLIP

We're facing covid-19 for a long time to come, for months and months and months and months and months and months and months to come, and for us to do all the things that we want to have children in school, to have surgeries performed, to have businesses operating, to have some normalcy. In these extraordinary times, we need to follow public health guidance and public health advice.

MG: The epicentre of this second wave is the Fraser Health Region. It's an area that includes the cities of Burnaby and Surrey, just outside of Vancouver. Dr. Birinden Narang is a family physician in Burnaby, also the vice chair of the Board of directors of the Burnaby Divisions of Family Practise. Doctor, good morning.

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: Good morning. Thanks for having me.

MG: Thank you for joining us. More than half of these new cases announced Wednesday in British Columbia were in the Fraser Health region. What do we know about why infection rates are surging in that particular area?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: Yes, that's a great question, and yesterday we actually announced our highest it was a highest total since the beginning of the pandemic. So, you know, things are going in the wrong direction. And there are a few specific factors that help me to knowing the we think a lot of the cases are in the region are in Surrey which is a very multicultural area. At least 12 to 14 languages are spoken there. And people face quite unique challenges, their large families living in multigenerational homes. And we worried that the messaging might not be reaching them as well as it could be.

MG: What do you mean? Not reaching them as well as it could be? Is the messaging, is it linguistic or is it cultural just in terms of how that message is being delivered in an inappropriate way?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: Should I think that the combination of the above, I think that purely on a language level, that a lot of people aren't native English speakers. So English may be a second language or may be a language that they don't speak as their primary language at home. And we know that a lot of the messages that have come out from the government have still been English primarily first with ASL translation on the daily briefings.

MG: Where has that left the community? I mean, we have seen and we saw it through the first wave where there was stigma and blame being directed to specific communities. Are you seeing that towards South Asian communities in the area?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: In the last week or so, I have seen a resurgence in that, especially on social media platforms, and that that is quite concerning to me.

MG: As a family physician, what do you do to try and ensure that the messaging is reaching your patients, but also that stigma is not being directed towards them?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: I think that as family traditions, are on the front line and I truly do believe that a health response is only as strong as the strength of the of primary care. And so we we know we have a role to do. You know, we have a little a huge part of it to educate our patients, especially if they are having trouble accessing information. So the way that we are empowered is and able to do that is to make sure we have those resources available to us so that we can be, you know, the arbiter of conveyors of this information and also to dispel cellmates and reject any bigotry that we might see along the way.

MG: How concerned are you by this increase in cases?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: I'm very concerned. I know our community is very concerned as well. And I know since we've seen a surge, there have been some town halls that have happened within the Surrey community and from where we have seen a large spike in cases. And I know that on a community level, people are concerned, too. And I think that even though we are seeing a spike in cases, the majority of people are trying to follow the government orders and rules that are in place to the best of their ability.

MG: How is that complicated by, for example, multigenerational families in the same dwelling or employment that would lead you to have to be out of the house, perhaps not working from home as well as other communities might be able to?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: Yes, and we have some specific data based on a provincial survey that went out in August that did show that certain minority groups are disproportionately affected. We know that they have increased financial security concerns and job security concerns. And we know that there is an overrepresentation in labour type jobs, driving jobs, gas station jobs, jobs that we are essential, but do require them to not have the luxury of working from home. And so we know inherently there high risk. And we know that and multigenerational generational homes, there may be a higher likelihood of the elderly living with these people that are returning home. So inherently, there is a risk to them just living life and working and trying to sustain themselves.

MG: So how do you protect those communities? That part of it is about messaging. What else can you do to ensure if that's the situation that people find themselves in, how how can you better protect them?

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: I think that messaging is important and it's only one messaging in the cultural context, not just a translation, but also contextualising it in the jobs that might be overrepresented. So part of the work I've done with the North American Medical Dental Association is that we have provided some information in Punjabi specifically some people who work in gas stations who might be working as truck drivers and giving them tips on how they can operate their own work safely and cleanly, and general tips on how to shower [unintelligible] when they come home and really get the part of the messaging here. Has that having bubbles of your state, which is not having more than six people, the same six people coming to your house that aren't residing there. But I think that we need to have a bit more nuance that knowing that if your household is already upwards of six to 10 people, the more people you invite in, it's just going to spread the potential risk. And that we know that spread can happen exponentially at that point. And we don't know where everyone is. So we have to be really mindful of the people that we are allowing into our lives and knowing that we might not know what their health vulnerabilities are as well.

MG: Doctor, I wish you the best of luck. It's important to hear what you're up against on the West Coast. Thank you.

DR. BIRINDEN NARANG: I appreciate it. Thank you.

Dr. Birinden Narang is a family physician and the vice chair of the board of directors of the Burnaby Division of Family Practise in British Columbia. Moving east from B.C. to Manitoba, covid hospitalisations are on the rise in that province. ICU beds are filling up. The province brought in new restrictions this week, but there are many people who are concerned that they aren't enough. A group of doctors has signed multiple letters calling on the provincial government to bring in stricter measures. Dr Anand Kumar as one of the signatories of those letters. He's an intensive care physician at Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre and a professor of medicine and microbiology at the University of Manitoba. Doctor, good morning to you.

DR. ANAND KUMAR: Good morning.

MG: What's it like in your hospital right now?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: A lot of apprehension, a lot of anxiety amongst the health care workers, increasing numbers of of cases in the hospital. So far, we've been holding it in the ICU without a little bit without too much change in the last week or so. But even the number that we have there is quadruple that we had to.

[Beep]

MG: Oh, we had the doctor, I think we lost, and we'll try and get him back on the line talking about what's going on in Winnipeg right now. In the meantime, why don't we go to Amy Greer, who's a Canada research chair in population disease modelling at the University of Guelph. The situation in Ontario is also a dire one. The seven day average of case counts there up to 982. Most of those cases in and around the greater Toronto region and Toronto and York region. As I mentioned, Amy Greer, Canada Research Chair and population disease modelling at the University of Guelph. Amy, good morning to you.

AMY GREER: Good morning, Matt.

MG: We'll get back to Winnipeg in a moment, but tell us what's happening in Ontario. Almost a thousand daily cases across the province. What do those numbers tell you about where the virus is going?

AMY GREER: Yes, I think there are a couple of things. So first, you know, we are testing the same number of people or even sometimes a little bit smaller number of people, and we're finding more cases. And so that's really concerning. And what's more concerning is that many of those cases cannot be traced back to any specific source. So what that tells us as epidemiologists is that there are many more cases in the community that we are missing. So when we combine those observations with other observations, like increasing numbers of outbreaks in places like long term care facilities and the fact that in specific health units where case counts are quite high, contact tracing has really broken down because of the sheer number of cases, but also because of the high number of contacts being reported per case and I mean, this is a place where we as a community can really help public health by having fewer contacts, that they have less of a significant job to do in terms of following up with all of those contacts.

MG: And so in the face of that, people in York region outside the city of Toronto as well as Ottawa, are loosening restrictions this weekend, allowing gyms and indoor dining to reopen. That's going to happen in Toronto in a week's time. Do you think that's a wise idea?

AMY GREER: It makes me incredibly nervous, to be honest. You know, I think that the challenges that we know that indoor locations where we have people coming and spending time, especially in establishments where you're eating or drinking, because that means you're not wearing a mask, you're potentially congregating with people from outside of your household and having close contact with others, that that creates a really great environment for transmission to occur.

MG: This week, the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, announced a new system to impose restrictions. There's a five colour coded categories. The criticism of this system is that the threshold for closures is too high, that it's almost impossible for many people to believe that big cities where the transmission is happening will actually hit that threshold. What do you think of this new system?

AMY GREER: YIt's a really good question, and I will say that, you know, many people have been calling for transparency and asking for a plan that's transparent to the public. And so the plan certainly meets this need for transparency. But for me, the threshold for scaling back that is put forward in that plan is extraordinarily high. By the time we meet that highest threshold, we essentially will be accepting that we will be having many preventable death. You just don't see them in the data yet because of that time lag between infection, hospital admission and then death. And on top of that, those deaths will occur in our most vulnerable and marginalised populations. So for me, it's very concerning. I actually don't think that by the time we get to that threshold, I think we are going to be in very serious trouble.

MG: Well, you're involved in modelling. This plan was ostensibly based on modelling projections. Do they have the modelling right?

AMY GREER: I mean, I think that there are a number of assumptions that certainly go into models and, you know, models take into account many different parts of the puzzle, but there are additional things that are very challenging to model. So, for instance, human behaviour in terms of the uptake of things like non pharmaceutical interventions, like distancing and masking, those are really challenging things to model because there's such heterogeneity in those types of behaviours. So certainly, you know, well, models have been used to inform some of this. You know, I think that we do also have to consider the fact that there is variability in human behaviour. Ultimately, I think, you know, the models have also used data from under significant restrictions. And so, you know, as we loosen those restrictions up, it is inevitable that we will see increasing case counts from where we are right now.

MG: I guess just before I let you go and briefly, what the premier has been saying is that he has to figure out how to protect people, but also ensure that people aren't suffering economically, that people's livelihoods aren't destroyed because that has a health cost as well. So how is it that government and public health officials can can thread that needle?

AMY GREER: Yes, I think you're exactly right, and I think that there are two parts to this, one is certainly, you know, as the public, we need to continue to be diligent about the behaviours that we ourselves are practising. But I think that we also need to recognise that in order to stimulate the economy, we need people to trust that we have viral transmission under control. And one of the ways that we can do that is to improve testing, testing, turnaround times and contact tracing. You know, if we have those things in place, it means people are able to know their status. So infection status or potential exposure status means people can stay home. And it means that the community is safer because there are fewer infectious individuals out and about. And if we can do that, if we combine those things, control the virus using a combination of testing and contact tracing and those public health interventions, it allows us to have more wiggle room. And so I think for me, that's really where I would say we really need to to do a better job in terms of those things. And there's just so many cases that it's really difficult for public health units to to contact rrace just because of the volume. So we need support to help support those health units to do that.

MG: Amy Greer, good to speak with you. Thank you.

AMY GREER: Thanks.

MG: Amy Greer, Canada research chair and population disease modelling at the University of Guelph. Dr. Anand Kumar is an intensive care physician at Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre, was speaking about the situation in Winnipeg. Dr. Hello.

DR. ANAND KUMAR: Hi.

MG: Winnipeg has a positive test rate of something like 10 percent. It's on par with some of the states in the United States and some cities there as well. Up until this point, it seemed like Manitoba was doing pretty well in terms of keeping its numbers low. What happened?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: Well, I think that I think the administration here got overconfident and basically lifted the restrictions without giving due consideration to when to reimpose aggressive restrictions. I think that they were hoping that as long as we didn't overwhelm ice use, that would allow economic activity to occur. The problem is it's very difficult to find to the level of activity in the community.

MG: You are one of the signatories on a letter calling for tougher restrictions to help kerb the spread of infections. Why aren't the restrictions that the government has put in place now enough?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: They may be enough, but the problem is that by the time that you know that they are or not enough, if it turns out they are not enough, then you've gone way deeper into the hole. As one of your previous guests mentioned, the the lag time between getting infected, being hospitalised, ending up in the ICU inside probably three weeks or so. And so the cases that are occurring now would basically determine three weeks ago we had about 50 cases a day. We now have 400, 450, 500 cases a day. We're going to see the results of that three weeks. Now, if these restrictions are enough, which most of us don't think they are, that is most of us with any experience, then fine. But if they're not that we're in a catastrophic situation and we don't think that's worth the risk.

MG: The health minister of Manitoba criticised the signatories of this letter. Take a listen to a little bit of what he had to say.

SOUNDCLIP

There are so many of us who are really scared, and I have to wonder about the motivation of those doctors who signed that letter. And I know many of them. And I will talk to many of them. And I get it. They're scared and they want the best for their patients. And I absolutely agree. But I wonder at the motivation to produce that letter, to produce, to generate it at a time when they knew it would have maximum effect and causing chaos in this system, when Manitobans need most to understand that the people in charge have got this.

MG: Dr. Kumar, he's questioning your motivation. What's your motivation here?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: My motivation is that I'd like a few unnecessary deaths amongst my fellow citizens of the province, and I think that's the motivation. I know that's the motivation of all of my colleagues. Several of my colleagues who wrote that letter are at home struggling with Vovid, having acquired while taking care of patients.

MG: What does it say, just finally, when that health minister is questioning the motivation of doctors and saying we're concerned about what's going on?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: Well, I think he's he's really stressed, you know, I think the analogy I use is, you know, the emperor with no clothes, saying if people would avoid mentioning I have no clothes on, we'd all be fine. I don't think things are good. I think things are going to get a lot worse. And it's something that we really need to pay attention to.

MG: You said that there's the possibility of a catastrophic situation. Is that truly likely or realistic?

DR. ANAND KUMAR: Yes, I mean, I've used the comparison to El Paso, Texas, and they have their data up on us on a website. We're perfectly tracking them. They went from 100 cases one week to to about 350 to 550 two weeks later and then two weeks after that. This is an October, October 28. They had over a thousand hospital admissions and they had over 220 in the ICU, 110 ventilated. I followed them last week. They're double that now. We don't have anything near that kind of capacity in the health system in Winnipeg. We're potentially having for a lot of people.

MG: Dr. Kumar, I appreciate your time this morning. It's a busy time for you. So thank you for stealing a bit of time for us.

DR. ANAND KUMAR: You're welcome.

MG: Dr. Anand Kumar is an intensive care physician at the Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre and a professor of medicine at the University of Manitoba. Your CBC News is next. And then another extraordinary night last night in the ongoing counts to find an outcome in the U.S. presidential election. We'll turn our attention south of the border and talk about what it could mean for us here in Canada. I'm Matt Galloway you're listening to The Current.

Allan Rock on what the presidential election means for U.S.-Canada relations

Guests: Allan Rock, Althia Raj, Marie Vastel

MG: Good morning, I'm Matt Galloway. You're listening to The Current.

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MG: Still to come, a movement bonded over democracy and milk, tea. But first, the count continues. And whether it's Biden or Trump, Canadians will feel the impact.

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MG: It was an extraordinary scene in the White House last night, President Donald Trump declaring with zero evidence that the election is being stolen from him, this two days after the election with the ballots still being counted.

SOUNDCLIP

We can't have an election stolen like this and we can't let that happen to the United States of America. It's not a question of who wins Republican, Democrat Joe myself. We can't let that happen to our country.

MG: As Joe Biden inches closer to the presidency, the Trump campaign has also filed a series of court challenges over this vote. The ongoing turmoil could pose some serious challenges for Canada. Joining me now to discuss that and other matters is Allan Rock. He was attorney general of Canada under the former prime minister Jean Chretien, also served as Canada's ambassador to the U.N., is now president emeritus and professor of law at the University of Ottawa. Allan Rock, good morning.

ALLAN ROCK: Good morning.

MG: You ever seen anything quite like what Donald Trump did last night?

ALLAN ROCK: It's shocking and I think it's stark evidence of how raw and bitter things have become. And the implications for Canada, I think, are great. I mean, no matter what the outcome, it looks increasingly like Biden's going to win this thing. But no matter which candidate wins, I think both short and longer term, we're going to have a real management challenge. And someone once said the Americans are not always right, but they're always right there, which means that it's a challenge to manage that relationship and to make sure that our interests are protected and we don't suffer any harm. But given the mood and the way things are going, it's looking, it's looking very challenging at the moment.

MG: These people have been wondering amid the big question is what happens now and what happens now in the immediate I mean, the next 24, 48 hours, but also in the months before the inauguration of the next president, whoever that is, in January, he's vowed to fight on. Trump has is there any role for America's allies like Canada if, for example, based on what you saw last night, he loses, but he refuses to leave office?

ALLAN ROCK: I think it's very difficult to see a direct role. I mean, this is a problem from the Americans to work out by themselves. And I think our government's been silent through all this to date. And that's the right approach. When I said we had a challenge in the short term, I meant the period to January 20th. We just don't know how this unpredictable, volatile person is going to respond in the White House. If news comes today or tomorrow that Biden is over 270, it's hard to predict how Trump will react. Obviously, he's lawyered this issue and he'll double down on his legal challenges. But what else will he do? Will issue executive orders that could be harmful? I think we have to be mindful of our own interests, make sure Canada is is protected. But I, I don't see a direct role that we can play. I mean, we'll be supportive once the new president is in office. But in the interim, this is this is an American issue and all we can do is manage Canadian interests.

MG: You have said that even if Trump loses, he has awakened something that won't go away. What did you mean by that?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, there's something I think we can now refer to as Trumpism. And he has awakened a force in the country. He's harnessed and he's given expression to an underlying frustration and anger, that arises from economic inequality, from the implications from globalisation. And we've discussed this since 2016, you know what I'm talking about. But it's a force that's still there that will survive the inauguration of Biden if he's elected. It's crude, it's nationalistic, it's ugly, it's divisive, it's racist, it's angry. And it's going to be destabilising for the United States. It's going to make Biden's job very difficult and and has implications for Canada, because we have to we have to deal with the United States and the borders closed at the moment except for essential services and the commercial truck traffic. But it's going to reopen and we have to we have to develop a way to manage the relationship in those difficult circumstances. Biden is looking at a divided Congress is not going to be able to quickly act to bring in stimulus and other Covid relief and soothing domestic measures. The nation is just as divided as the Congress is. So it's a messy, difficult, dangerous situation. And if you add to that roving gangs with firearms intimidating people in their pickup trucks, it's a it's a very volatile situation.

MG: How does Canada deal with that? We've been talking over the last couple of days of the fact that, you know, close to 70 million people voted for Donald Trump. And there are a lot of reasons why people voted for him. But the reality is what happened four years ago and his election was not some sort of aberration. The people say this is America in 2020. So how does Canada interact with that? How does Canada deal with that reality of America now?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, I think the first thing is to protect Canadian interests, to be careful of a backlash or some negative step taken domestically by the Americans intended to express anger or resentment against Canada for fears of some real or imagined trade advantage that Trump keeps saying that we have. You know, one of the things for which the current Trudeau government got a lot of accolades early on after its first election, and this is bipartisan, not just Liberals, [unintelligible] was the way that they sort of flooded the zone in the United States. They had points of contact that were very widespread. They had people working on members of Congress and governors, mayors, chambers of Commerce. Canada seems to be everywhere in the early days of the NAFTA renegotiation and made sure that our perspectives were understood, that our message got through. I think we have to reinvigorate that strategy. We have an excellent ambassador in Washington and her team is outstanding, but backing them up with new consulates, with people everywhere in the states that can bring our message, that can explain we're not the enemy. We know that our interests coincide. I think protecting our presence there and enlarging it, it's going to be important in the next few years. That would be my advice.

MG: If you take a look at the economic impact of that, I mean, with the ambassador there, she will be able to press our case. But Joe Biden, should he become the president, has also promised to, you know, buy American policies. He promised to cancel the Keystone pipeline. What would the economic impact be in this country of a Democrat in the White House? Because people have a sense as to, you know, the last four years what that's meant with a Republican. But for a Democrat, what would that mean?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, it's true, that is is it a trillion dollar or two trillion dollar economic recovery package is based on buying American. So there's a nationalistic element in Biden's plan, to be sure. But the good news is that I think it's much, it's going to be much easier if Biden is the president for us to relate on a human on a personal level, both to him and his administration. And, you know, if the government of the United States says that when it procures, it's going to prefer American products, then I think we're going to have to live with that for the foreseeable future and find other strategies to enlarge and strengthen our economic relationship. You know, for one thing, he's going to take the virus a lot more seriously than Trump ever did, which means that the border will reopen and full economic activity will resume sooner under Biden than it would have under Trump. Hopefully they can get that virus under control over the next year. So that will be helpful. And I think just the relationship between the PM and the president, you know, Biden was in Canada before the end of the Obama administration. The two men know each other. And I can just imagine the chemistry between them would be very good.

MG: And does that matter? Does the personal relationship, does that really matter?

ALLAN ROCK: I think it matters hugely, hugely. I watched it for myself when the prime minister when I was in government, connected with me, with whether it was Mr. Clinton with whom he had a very close and warm relationship, or with Mr. Bush, which is a bit more distant, but nonetheless still polite, civil and productive. And when the PM picks up the phone and is able to speak with the president on that basis, it makes a huge difference in sort of mitigating harsh measures and staying their hand when they threaten to do something harmful. So that makes a huge difference. Just look at the challenge that Mr. Trudeau has had over the last four years in dealing with this man, a volatile, wilful, self-absorbed, unpredictable. What a headache. And hopefully that will be gone on January 20th.

MG: Can I ask you just briefly about Washington's relationship with Beijing and how that impacts Canada, particularly when it comes to efforts to free Michael Schiavo or Michael Cauvery? Does their situation, their detention in a Chinese prison look any different under a Biden White House?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, I hope so. I very much hope so. First question is whether a Biden Justice Department would take a fresh look at the whole question of requesting extradition. Will would they ever withdraw that request? And if not, there are other ways that a Biden administration can help. Will Huawei plead guilty to an American offence in exchange for the charge being dropped against Madam Meng? And if that won't work, well, will Biden join us more actively? And advocacy with China to release political prisoners or at least improve their conditions of confinement? Who knows? Maybe in the early months of a Biden administration, there's room for a gesture of goodwill from the Chinese. And if he requests and pushes this, it might be to the advantage of our two Michaels. So I think we have to be vigilant and careful and push all of these buttons and do everything we can to try to get the Americans to help us with this awful situation.

MG: Just before I let you go, everybody is in a bit of a holding pattern waiting for the outcome. The prime minister has been asked about this and hasn't said much of anything. Is that the right strategy to keep quiet?

ALLAN ROCK: Oh, yes, very much so. It's not our place to comment on the American election. I think he's doing exactly the right thing. And I smuggle in one additional thought. If we're to be honest with ourselves, the last four years of Trump and his crude and sort of, well, overtly racist behaviour have had an impact here as well. I mean, remember, 2017, 2018, we were shocked at the higher hate crime statistics in Canada. It's as though he emboldened racists and white supremacists, not just in his own country, but here and elsewhere. So as the United States tries to recover and heal, I think Canada has to also face that reality and resolve to sort of double down on the values that, you know, have made us a civil and peaceful place to live and repudiate racism and intolerance and reaffirm our commitment to social justice. And so it's not just the Americans that have to heal. I think the awful damage done by Trump is shown elsewhere as well. And I think Canada has to reflect upon what's happened here and and what repair we have to make.

MG: Allan Rock good to speak with you this morning. Thank you.

ALLAN ROCK: Thank you so much.

MG: Matt Galloway. Allan Rock is the former attorney general of Canada, Canadian ambassador to the U.N.. And now the president emeritus and professor of law at the University of Ottawa. Let's now go to our national affairs panel for more on I don't think dramatic is dramatic enough of a word. The last week in the United States in politics. Marie Vastel, Washington correspondent for Le Devoir.Althia Raj, Ottawa bureau chief for Huff Post, Canada. Good morning to you both.

ALTHIA RAJ: Good morning.

MARIE VASTEL: Good morning.

MG: Marie, you are in Washington. Let's start with Donald Trump's address to the nation last night. What do you make of the approach that he and his campaign have taken since Tuesday?

MARIE VASTEL: Well, you should get the sense that they are not ready to see the writing on the wall, I guess. It was quite a dramatic day for Donald Trump yesterday. He started the day with with, you know, fair enough leads in a few key states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. And as the day went by, two states that he needs to win to keep the presidency, by the way. And as the days went by, those leads just kept getting slimmer and slimmer and slimmer. And they still did overnight, actually. And this morning, Joe Biden is now very, very slightly ahead in Georgia. And the more the day went on yesterday, the more it didn't seem whether if Joe Biden would win, but when Joe Biden would win. So Donald Trump was quite all day just tweeting a few allegations of vote stealing and election fraud, which were flagged by Twitter. And then that address that essentially shocked, I would say, everyone. It was a tirade of of of lies, of allegations that have not been substantiated. Some networks even cut him off, cut off the president of their own nation.

MG: Let's listen to that, because that was an extraordinary moment. The president of the United States is speaking and the networks are carrying it and then this happens.

SOUNDCLIP

DONALD TRUMP: But in all cases, this so one sided.

NEWS ANCHOR: We were watching President Trump speaking live from the White House. And we have to interrupt here, because the president has made a number of false statements, including the notion that there has been fraudulent voting. There has been no evidence of that allegations by his campaign.

MG: Marie, pick that up. Go ahead.

MARIE VASTEL: Yes, not only was he repeating this partisan rhetoric against the Democrats in the Democratic Party, he was now attacking the democratic institutions of the country, calling the electoral system corrupt, inventing, as I said, all these allegations of voter irregularities which have been denied by all the states in which the results are very tight. And Donald Trump is alleging that he is now losing because of illegal lead to ballots or people who voted twice or all sorts of allegations that have been debunked. If you sort of watched every network as you cut away, either they cut him off or they kept going and they they were just all stunned after it was over. And I think it was- Donald Trump is known for being controversial and a coloured personality. But I think this was coming from the White House, not, you know, from a campaign stop. I think it was just a little bit too much for a lot of people out here.

MG: Althia Rai. What do you make on this point of the way that the broadcast media handled the speech by Donald Trump?

ALTHIA RAJ: Yes, can I just say I was not surprised at all that that is what he said. I mean, he's basically been telling us that this is what he was going to do. And then he tweeted about it and then he did it. And I think that not only do people feel that there is broadcasters feel that there's a responsibility, that they have to fact check things, you know, that they're they've been criticised for doing less fact checking than Twitter. But I think there's also a feeling that the writing's on the wall. He's no longer going to be president, and also that it's a public security threat to let him suggest that the election is being stolen from him and that Democrats are to blame and encouraging his supporters to take to the street. I think that that's also, I think, what is weighing in the balance of broadcasters watching this.

MG: Just briefly, Marie, why is it taking so long for these for these ballots to be counted? That's one thing that people are waiting on. I mean, Nevada. Yes, there are all sorts of memes on the Internet about, you know, things moving very slowly in Nevada, a state that generally moves at the speed of light. Why is it taking so long?

MARIE VASTEL: Yes, which they are, by the way, moving very slowly. Well, the issue is that a lot of these ballots were mailing ballots because of the pandemic. Some of these states had dealt with so many mailing ballots in over 20 years. The other issue in Philadelphia, in Pennsylvania, for example, is those ballots couldn't start being counted until the polls closed on Tuesday night. And in Pennsylvania, that meant, you know, a few million votes that still had to be counted. Some states like Michigan tried to be allowed to start looking at these ballots a little earlier so results could come out earlier. But those state legislatures refused. Actually, the Trump campaign also fought against that sort of, as Althia said, setting it up for these late ballots to come in so he could allege that it's irregular and fraudulent. And so now we're waiting for these all these ballots to be counted. And it's taking extra long because it is so, so, so tight. I mean, you're talking about a lead in Georgia this morning when Joe Biden took the lead, it was 900 votes. It's so tight that all these states are saying we have to count them all into the very last ballot because it could flip at any minute in one direction or another. And then just to build on what else he was saying about the climate in the United States right now and how the president is inflaming it, what wasn't on TV, was one of his son, Donald Trump Jr., tweeting that the president should go to total war over the election to expose all the fraud and the cheating. That's the message that is being sent to his base to half of the Americans who voted for Donald Trump. And Althia is right that it is essentially ashes that are probably about to light on fire in the next little while.

MG: Althia Raj, The prime minister has said that his government will work with whomever Americans elect. We were just talking with Alan Roark about this. How do Canadian officials deal with what's happening right now?

ALTHIA RAJ: With silence.

MG: Do you think people are biting their tongues, wishing they could say something?

ALTHIA RAJ: No, I think they are very happy to say nothing, frankly, as that's the safest move. That is the message that was given to caucus the liberal caucus this week. It is the message that went out to our consul generals. And the ambassador there had a virtual meeting last week to talk about what their game plan was going to be. You know, they don't want to be in a situation like in 2000 where France and Germany and New Zealand and I think Japan came out and said, congratulations to George W. Bush when he was called the winner. And then when it looked like maybe he wasn't going to win, they some of them had to recant their congratulations or sit tight and bite your tongue. So they really don't want to do anything that could be perceived as maybe inflaming the current occupant of the White House. I think, you know, you mentioned- you spoke briefly with Alan Rock about the situation that the prime minister could find himself in. And I think the worst case scenario is if Donald Trump decides to use the friendships that he has made in the White House to basically try to blackmail world leaders to recognise that he has won the presidency, that would be the worst case scenario. So at the moment, as long as, you know, the government is not in the news and nobody is asking them to do anything, sitting tight and saying nothing is really the way to go.

MG: They must be also gaming ahead, though, trying to figure out what all of this means no matter who ends up in the White House. If Joe Biden were to become the president, Althia, what would that mean for Canada? Allan Rock was talking about, you know, Keystone XL, for example, talking about buy America policies. What would this mean for Canada?

ALTHIA RAJ: Yes, well, there's been a lot more time planning for who is going to be the next president of the United States, the more time planning for Joe Biden winning the election. There are a few things that are of concern and there are a few things that are looking like there could be opportunities. I would say the main opportunity is a two trillion dollar climate plan that Joe Biden announced in the summer. The government would like to work with Joe Biden. They would have liked to work with Hillary Clinton on something that is similar to what Joe Biden is suggesting is far more ambitious than anything Clinton or even President Obama put on the table. So in some ways, rolling back some of the changes that Donald Trump brought in, I'm thinking about the efficiency mandate, for example, on cars, the push for electric vehicles. Joe Biden has pledged to make the electricity grid carbon neutral in 2035. You know, that could be great for Hydro-Quebec, for example. It's also more competition. So for can companies that are working in hydrogen or carbon capture, for example, but working on climate and having Joe Biden come back to the Paris climate accords to have this meeting with China and India to redouble international efforts to tackle climate change, that is something the Liberal government is looking to do. Of course, you mentioned in your introduction, Keystone is a huge concern. The government has already spoken to James Murdoch, the former conservative MP who is now a [unintelliglbe] man in Washington, about a possible kind of PR bid to try to convince Americans, not American legislators, not to move forward with Biden's expressed desire to block the Keystone pipeline. Of securing the oil and gas sector in Canada. You probably wish that Trump wins the election and Joe Biden and then buy American provisions. This is something that's part of the climate plan. This is something that the previous Harper government had to work with President Obama on when the Democrats brought in protectionist measures. That's not completely unknown, but it's not welcome news for Canada. Hopefully we would get an exception. I think Allan mentioned that Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden have a close friendship, which is or at least they have a warm a warm relationship. We saw that on display during that state dinner in 2016. We also know, for example, that Joe Biden's campaign director general Dillon has strong links with the Liberal Party, was a consultant on their 2016 campaign team and spoke at the Liberal Party convention in 2014.

MG: So there are ties there.

ALTHIA RAJ: There are ties there.

MG: Marie, we're just about out of time on a scale of one to five. You're in Washington, D.C. How tense is the scene there?

MARIE VASTEL: Well, surprisingly, you know, we saw the buildings put placards up on their windows. It's been quiet, I think, because so far the protests have been where we're still counting votes. Right. There's no really results yet. And so what we're seeing is more protests in Pennsylvania. We saw some in Michigan earlier. I think the tension will come here once we find out maybe today who is the winner. But I think there's this tension that we've seen in the past 48 hours or so. I've lost count. It's certainly not going to go away any time soon.

MG: You're forgiven for losing count. It's been a long week. I appreciate speaking to you both this morning. Thank you.

ALTHIA RAJ: Thank you, Matt.

MARIE VASTEL: Thank you very.

MG: Marie Vastel, Washington correspondent for Le Devoir. Althia Raj is the Ottawa bureau chief for Huff Post, Canada. Your regional update is next on CBC Radio One. And then.

SOUNDCLIP

Crackdown and the suppression is not the way out. It's the time to end oppression in Thailand and to push forward democratic reforms.

MG: From the democratic exercise in the United States to pro-democracy activists in Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan who are working together. In our next half hour, how the Milk Tea Alliance is pushing for change in those countries and beyond. I'm Matt Galloway. This is The Current. We are back in 90 seconds. Stay with us.

André Picard on the latest efforts to curb the pandemic

Guests: Andre Picard

MG: Hi, I'm Matt Galloway, you're listening to The Current Canada has now passed 250000 cases of Covid-19. Earlier this morning, we spoke with doctors and public health experts on what they are worried about when it comes to what's happening in their areas and what could be on the horizon when it comes to Vovid-19. Andre Picard is here with us now to talk through some of what the country could be in for. He is the Global Mail's health columnist, has been a regular on this programme over the course of this pandemic. Andre, good morning.

ANDRE PICARD: Good morning.

MG: What did you make of what you heard from the health experts in Ontario, B.C. and Manitoba? I think it's fair to say that they have a shared concern about where we're going, but also what's being done to mitigate where we're going.

ANDRE PICARD: Yes, I heard some real a real undercurrent of worry there about where this is going, I think when we look around the world, everybody fears, you know, we know just how fast this can explode. And Canada is at a place now that's quite dangerous. Yesterday, we had almost 4000 cases that doubled the peak, you know, in the first wave. But people don't realise how bad it's getting quickly.

MG: What did you make of the fact that the health minister in Manitoba was criticizing doctors, including Dr Kumar, who we spoke with for speaking out about those concerns?

ANDRE PICARD: I think the politicisation of this has become quite disturbing. Canada has been good in following its public health experts and now we're seeing this sniping at doctors, at public health officials, particularly in Manitoba, most egregious, we're seeing it in Alberta, which is essentially at war with its doctors. And if you don't have the frontline workers on site, you're not going to beat this. That's the last thing we should be doing, is throwing doctors and nurses overboard.

MG: This is interesting because to your point, it seemed as though people leaders were explicitly saying in that first wave, we're listening to the scientists. We're listening to experts. Dr Rahbar, who is a physician in Calgary, yesterday tweeted, I just got home from a busy day at work to the news of more than 800 cases and limited contact tracing. We've lost the plot. The government has decided to prioritise the economy ahead of people. Tell me more about why you say this is a politicisation of a second wave.

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think we just have governments, particularly conservative governments, it has to be said, saying, listen, we're going to get back to work. It doesn't matter what the cost is. You know, it's we've all heard about the Great Barrington Declaration. And what Canada is doing now is sort of great. If I could put it that way. They're saying, listen, we're willing to sacrifice people and it's going to be older people, people with disabilities, the vulnerable, we're willing to sacrifice them now to get people back in bars and restaurants. That's the unstated policy that's going on now in places like Ontario and Alberta and Manitoba.

MG: Dr. Samir Sinha, who is the director of geriatrics at Mount Sinai and was the architect of that province's senior strategy, says that this he believes that what's happening in Ontario is a herd immunity plan to your point. And he worries that that seniors will be sacrificial lambs. Is he right?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, the numbers bear him out, 60 percent of deaths in the second wave so far back in our long term care homes, we have 355 outbreaks in care homes across Canada. The last time I checked. So this you know how this dominated the first wave. Now we're not paying attention to it, but it's back and it's it's killing our elders.

MG: In the face of that, it was interesting, there was a comment that was made by Dr. Vera Etches, who's the medical officer of health for Ottawa, and she said that we need to learn how to coexist with Covid with care. And she said in some ways that means less closure and more masks and more personal care taken to prevent the spread of Covid-19. So what do you make of what she is saying in the face of what's happening elsewhere in the country?

ANDRE PICARD: I think what she's saying is important. It's about finding the balance, you know, so we use this expression. We have to learn to live with Covid. And I think that's true. But that phrase has been co-opted to mean we just have to throw open. The door is wide open. And the really important part of what Dr. Etches with care. So it's not about abandoning people in elder care facilities. It's about making them safer to ensure that they're not at risk and doing some stuff, but being cautious about where we reopen and how we rebuild. But, you know, I think our mantra has to be to close down quickly when things start to go badly, like now and then reopen slowly to make sure that it doesn't take off again. So I think she's been criticized for her comments, but I think they're they were said cautiously and thoughtfully, essentially a harm reduction approach to the virus that we take to many other public health challenges.

MG: This is something that you've talked about. It feels like since the beginning of our conversation, that harm reduction approach in the face of a second wave with cases going up in many parts of the country. What does that look like?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think harm reduction means closing down the places that cause the greatest risk. And we know what they are. They're bars, their restaurants, they're places where people gather in large groups, where they're unconscious, often because of alcohol. So we have to pick our spots. What do we want the priority to be in society. And I think some jurisdictions, to their credit, have been clear about this. Quebec has set the priority is to have children in school. We want them to suffer the least. Some jurisdictions have said we're going to protect our elders. We're not going to allow this into old age homes. Some countries have done that and had zero deaths. Canada has thousands. You have to pick your spots and you have to be clear about them. I think Canada, maybe it's our nature, but it's kind of wishy washy. We kind of do one thing one week and then something different the next week. And it ends up that we do well, nowhere.

MG: This is jurisdictional in some ways, but is there a greater responsibility for the federal government in this moment here in Canada?

ANDRE PICARD: We can always blame the Constitution for everything. But, you know, I think Ottawa's role has been the same one all along to provide guidance to try and get buy in from the provinces. And I think it worked well in our first wave. There's a lot of solidarity, if I could use that word. And now that's kind of falling apart. Everybody's kind of going their own way. We're seeing wide variations in policies from one province to the next. And again, I don't think that serves us well. We don't live in these little bubbles. We interact less than we did before. We still interact. And there should be some consistency so the public understands.

MG: we'll talk again. In the meantime, a pleasure as always, Andre. Thank you.

ANDRE PICARD: Thank you.

MG: Andre Picard to The Globe emails, health columnist.

[Music]

Thai pro-democracy activists 'not alone' in their fight, says Hong Kong lawmaker

Guests: Warin Patrick McBlain, Janjira Sombatpoonsiri, Ted Hui

MG: This is The Current on CBC Radio one, I'm Matt Galloway.

[Music and noises]

MG: That's the sound of pro-democracy demonstrators at a recent mass protest in Thailand. While the atmosphere seemed more festive that day, the scene on the streets in previous days has been much more serious.

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE 1: Defiance against Thailand's military leaders this weekend. The three fingered salute from The Hunger Games movies and books, the symbol of the opposition.

VOICE 2: By not allowing the people to criticise the monarchy, it's simply stating that they are above us. And ultimately what we're fighting for is democracy, freedom and equality.

MG: Over the past several weeks, tens of thousands of protesters have gathered to demand democratic change and accountability from their prime minister and their king. The demonstrations have been mainly student led and mostly peaceful. And for weeks, Thai protesters have been getting support from Hong Kong and Taiwanese pro-democracy activists through a loose coalition called the Milk Tea Alliance. What started out as an online movement has now transformed into real world action. Warin Patrick McBlain is a Thai pro-democracy activist in Bangkok. Patrick, hello.

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Hi.

MG: Tell me what we heard a little bit of that clip there. Calling for democracy and equality. What specifically are you demanding from your government?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Well, basically, our movement has three demands, basically. First, we want the resignation of the current prime minister. And the second demand is to rewrite the current constitution. And the final demand is to reform the Thai monarchy. That's basically the three main demands of our movement.

MG: There have been protests in Thailand, pro-democracy protests in Thailand for four years. What's different about these ones, do you think?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Well, I would say that this this current protest, it differs from other protests that we've seen before in the fact that it's a youth led protest in the digital age, basically. So now the current movement has come to a point where you could define it loosely as a leaderless movement, sort of like what we what we had in Hong Kong. Basically, it it is come to a point that everyone is now everyone could be a leader of this protest, basically. And also the most important aspect of this protest is it's actually the first protest in Thailand that actually addresses the problems with the Thai monarchy, which is usually a taboo subject in Thailand.

MG: Tell me more about that. I mean, people have referred to the monarchy in some ways is untouchable within your country. How significant is it for students to target the king?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: The Thai monarchy has always been revered in Thailand. And we also have laws preventing criticism towards the Thai monarchy as well. You could get a huge jail time just for criticizing, not to mention that there are forced disappearances of many Thai activists who are outspoken critics of the Thai monarchy as well. So t And people have just only recently addressed the problems the Thai monarchy had with Thai democracy.

MG: And so when you talk about reforming the monarchy, the monarchy, is it about removing the rule of the king or can it can it actually be reformed?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Although there are Republican streaks in the movement, the majority of the people protesting are not aiming for Republicanism in Thailand. They basically want the Thai monarchy to to curb their power and place them under the constitution and making sure that time Thai monarchy is a proper constitutional monarchy as how it should be basically.

MG: There have been counterprotests as well in the king himself has made an appearance on the streets. What impact have these efforts to to counter your movements have?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Well, I mean, basically what happened is whether intentional or not, the Thai king has sent a signal that he does not accept the demands of the pro-democracy protesters just by placing himself towards the opposing yellow shirts movement as well. I think that that could be detrimental to the movement by the fact that basically what is going on is the government is trying to pit these two movements, the pro-democracy and the yellow shirts against each other throughout the movement to incite violence and to create conditions suitable for another coup, basically.

MG: How important is it that you have support from protesters in other countries? I mentioned in the introduction that you're getting help from activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan or it's.

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: It's actually really helpful in the sense that Hong Kong protesters basically have the experience of dealing with mass scale, leaderless protests themselves. So basically online they're giving basically tips and tricks and how to use of the protests, basically, so that just giving advice as a whole on how to on how to move, how to evade capture and how to prepare for a protest, basically. But also the Hong Kong and the Taiwanese people fully support our cause and basically spread news regarding the Thai protests far and wide, basically. And an example would be the there's a petition on change.org basically to ask the German Bundestag to declare persona non grata. And Joshua Wong, the leader of the Hong Kong movement, basically shared this petition on Twitter and it garnered 200000 signatures, basically. So that's probably one of the many examples that Thai movement has benefited from the Milk Tea Alliance.

MG: One of those people who's been involved in the Milk Tea alliance has been listening in, Ted Hui, who is a lawmaker in Hong Kong with the Democratic Party. Ted. Hello to you.

TED HUI: Hello.

MG: Tell me about why you felt it was important to show solidarity with the protesters in Thailand.

TED HUI: It is very important because when we look at the Thai protests, we share very similar values. That is, we fight for freedom and democracy. If they're not fighting for public in Thailand, we are not fighting for independence of Hong Kong, at least not the mainstream. We are so suppressed. We are beaten by police in face of police brutality, looking at the scenes like water cannons and all the batons. It really breaks our heart and reminds us of how we've gone through the tough year last year with our freedom movement. So I think it's important to show the world that we activist protesters who fight for freedom and democracy and we are not alone. I remember how the international community spoke for us last year and we felt so encouraged that it was so helpful. So now I feel we have a responsibility to speak for those who are suffering from tyranny of suppression in the world. So we support Thai movement totally and of course, the struggle in Belarus, the people. And so to show the tyrannies in these in the world that we are one and people are rising and it's not a matter of one nation, it's a matter of all.

MG: So do you see the Milk Tea alliance is more than just these three countries. You mentioned Belarus, that this is something that could sweep the globe?

TED HUI: Yes, of course, Milk Tea is more the Asian thing that involves also Taiwan and some South India. And I think the alliance should expand to support all the youth and all the people that are under persecutions by tyrannies in the world. We can see that tyrannies in the world are also allied. If you look at the Human Rights Council and UN, you'll see now it's different. So we need to it's symbolic and to show the solidarity amongst US activists and protesters for democracy and freedom.

MG: When you do that. And I mean, we heard about the tips and tricks as he was saying that that you're able to offer beyond solidarity when people are able to band together. What are you able to accomplish, do you think?

TED HUI: To me, the more important point is more than just tactics and tips and tricks that are involved in the protest. More importantly, we protesters in Thailand and in Hong Kong and Belarus, one thing is that we can't speak. If we speak up for democracy and freedom, we will be sent to jail. We will face police brutality like today. I was sent to court for trial, for speaking up and even in the chamber in parliament. So we are all facing draconian laws, what we call the newly elected national security law. And of course, in Thailand, they have their own draconian laws. So it is difficult for us to speak for ourselves. So if we speak, in Hong Kong we speak for the Thai. In Thailand, they speak for Belarus, and in Belarus they speak for Hong Kong. And I think that's a safer and more clever way of speaking up against tyrannies.

MG: The reality, though, and you mentioned this, you mentioned the national security law, is that protesters in Hong Kong have not succeeded in getting democratic powers from the government. People have been arrested. The situation there remains very severe. So what does that say about what you're up against?

TED HUI: After all the fight, all the movements now, we don't have democracy. More and more young people are sent to jail for five, 10 years. The situation here is horrible, but at least we defend it against a very suppressive, what we call the anti extradition bill, that intended to satisfy the China vote for trial. Now, the bill has been drowned, so. There are other demands, like forming an independent committee to investigate into police brutality. We have not succeeded. But then I think the more important point is that people in Hong Kong are so awakened by the movement last year, even though I think- I think for democracy, there's a long way to go but when people are so awakened that we now I would say that I still have high hopes on the Hong Kong people.

MG: Warin Patrick McBlain, you are asking for on the streets of Thailand, you're asking for big change when it comes to the monarchy, but also reforming the constitution and larger moves towards democracy. What will what will show you success? What would you would would indicate that you're successful in what you're asking for?

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: We would be successful in the end if all of our demands are met. But at the same time, I think that our success lies in spreading awareness of what is going on in Thailand. And basically right now we are succeeding as evident from the fact that the Thai youth, the Thai students, are now being awakened to the fact that Thailand hasn't been a proper democracy for such a long time. But in the end, we would find that our movement be successful if all of these three demands are met.

MG: But in the meantime, as you say, activating the youth and sort of opening their eyes to the situation that they're in is is the beginning of change.

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: It is correct.

MG: It's great to speak with you both about this. Thank you.

WARIN PATRICK MCBLAIN: Thank you very much.

TED HUI: Thank you.

MG: Warren Patrick McLaine is a Thai pro-democracy activist. Ted, who is an activist politician and lawmaker in Hong Kong. Janjira Sombatpoonsiri is a researcher with the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University. She's been listening in from Taipei. Hello to you.

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: Hi.

MG: How, as you understand it, did the military alliance first surfaced online? We've heard a bit about what they've been doing on the streets, but online, what was going on?

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: As the two previous speakers have said, there have been a lot of organised campaigns in solidarity of each other. And I think leading activists, at least from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand, have been kind of sharing calls from each other. For example, if something is happening in Thailand and activists in these two countries, what kind of help sharing on spreading the word to the world. So I think it's hashtag what is happening in Thailand has become a trending. It's widely used not only by Thai people, but also people who are supporting the fight for democracy at the moment.

MG: And it sounds obvious, but I mean, you mentioned the hashtag, the fact that you can have these conversations online. How significant is is that in terms of being able to activate people, but also being able to move towards some sort of real change?

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: It's very, very important because I think what the two speakers have addressed is actually the increasing autocratic atmosphere, especially in Southeast Asia, but also around the world and in Southeast Asia we're seeing this erosion of democracy, you know, from Cambodia to Thailand to Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia is also at risk. And also, I think with this kind of anxiety that our civil society spaces are shrinking. And that's been the launching of lawfare, the use of draconian laws to crack down on dissidents. I think all of these have sort of driven young people to kind of do something for their society to save democracy. And I think it's kind of a common feeling do exist. And now they kind of take part in online spaces. But also there's a crossover between online and offline spaces and whatever campaigns that take place. Online spaces always reflect the international solidarity offline. And this international solidarity is this fight against autocracy.

MG: How significant is it in Thailand in particular, the demonstrators are criticising the monarchy.

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: Thai people have live under the pressure that we cannot talk about something for a long time. It's very uplifting and I think it symbolises a democratic culture that finally there's a free speech, even though there's a cost for that. So I think in that sense is very important. But I think when one look at the monarchy, you need to understand that the monarchy can exist because it has its networks of support and dealing with the monarchy alone will not actually bring about a sustainable democratic processes. In Thailand, the military support the monarchy, a lot of big business support the monarchy, and you have a lot of Thai people who are still loyal to the monarchy and I actually disagree with Patrick, that there is a consensus in Thailand right now that we have to reform the monarchy. In fact, the mobilization of the rallies on the street is not only orchestrated by by the state, but there's also real people with real love for the monarchy. Their idea and I think high society is really polarized. And and I think when you have a poll on the topic of the monarchy, the society is even more paralysed than before.

MG: So what does that say then about what those protesters are up against if there is wide or not widespread, but certainly support within the Thai population for the monarchy? And these protesters are looking at reforming in part that monarchy. What does that say about what the protesters are up against in terms of trying to achieve real change?

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: You know, if you think of the monarchy like a tree. The tree has its roots. Right? And when you cut the tree, the roots are there. They come back. These roots of the regime are entrenched in Thai society and there are a lot of stakes that people don't want to protect. And so there are a lot of interest groups that would lose out if the monarchy is undermined. And so the students are up against these interest groups, powerful people, but also the other half of society that are still loyal to the institution.

MG: What would define success? I asked Patrick this and he said, you know, we want our demands to be realised for free. From your perspective, what would what would show success in this movement?

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: If prime minister for you it is willing to step down, that's already a small step towards success. I think in order to achieve a constitutional amendment or the reform of the monarchy, you need to kind of gather more or less a broad-based consensus of type society. There is an increasing awareness that something is wrong about unchecked royal institution. But that doesn't mean that they accept this kind of, you know, outright disrespect of the monarchy. So I see what is going to bring about this long term change is for the protesters to be able to construct this broad based consensus that, look, we do not want to disrespect the monarchy. This is power to suspend the monarchy in more than Thailand.

MG: Just before I let you go, Ted mentioned Belarus. You have raised the issue of the Philippines. You have young people around the world who are connecting through this loose alliance. Does that suggest to you that that this could spread to other places, that it's more than just sort of a blip, that that it's a real movement?

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: Absolutely. I mean, in contrast to this rise of autocratic regimes around the globe, we have the rise of youthful protest. And I think this milk tea alliance is a good example that this international solidarity can be tangible and perhaps this is the only way to defend democracy from global autocratization.

MG: It's fascinating to watch and we will talk further about it. In the meantime, Janjira, thank you.

JANJIRA SOMBATPOONSIRI: Thank you.

MG: Janjira Sombatpoonsiri is a researcher with the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University. We reached her this morning in Taipei, Taiwan. That's it for The Current for today and for this week. Big exhale. It's been a long week. A lot of things happening all at the same time. Coming up next on CBC Radio one, it's cute. Tom Power speaking with Heidi Schreck, the playwright behind what the Constitution Means to Me. Broadway show turned film about the way that women's lives are shaped by the Constitution. Lots to talk to her about. And you'll hear Tom's conversation with Heidi coming up on CBC Radio One. In the meantime, I'm Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening to The Current. Have yourself a great weekend. And we'll talk again on Monday.

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