What to expect in a one-dose summer
Outdoor activities are best, but you may still need a mask, says epidemiologist
As temperatures across Canada rise, so too are the number of COVID-19 vaccines going into arms.
According to COVID-19 Tracker Canada, nearly 24 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been delivered to Canadian provinces — and more than 21 million of them have been administered.
For a population of nearly 38 million, that means more than half of Canadians have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
If you've been vaccinated, the prospect of returning to some of your favourite summer activities might be enticing. But according to Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, that will still take a bit more time.
"We're still in the throes of that third wave, and most of the modelling shows that we won't get through most of it until the end of June," he told The Current's Matt Galloway.
Although Deonandan feels encouraged about the number of Canadians getting vaccinated, he clarifies that most of them have only received one dose of the vaccine. In fact, only about 1.7 million Canadians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
He says that one dose provides good protection, but it's not a perfect defence against the coronavirus. This is particularly a problem if the prevalence of the disease is high in an area.
"We've got to make sure that the disease is not percolating before we start doing these activities," he said.
He adds that hospital space is also a concern.
"As things look better where we live, hospitals are still going to be busy for some time, and we can't really play around too much lest we compromise and threaten that hospital capacity again," he said.
Outdoors over indoors
That said, Deonandan believes there are ways for vaccinated Canadians to enjoy a responsible and safe one-dose summer.
"Anything outdoors is phenomenally less [risky] than anything indoors, phenomenally so. Not zero risk, but close to it in many cases," he said.
He also extends this recommendation to children's activities, such as daycare or day camps. Children have been cooped up at home for large parts of the pandemic — their education has mostly gone virtual and their playdates have often been cancelled. So outdoor daycare and camps are a potential activity for kids to enrol in.
This is especially good news for Ontario residents. Last week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced details for a new three-step reopening plan for the province.
Phase 1, which kicks off the week of June 13, focuses on resuming outdoor activities with smaller crowds where the risk of transmission is lower. The activities include sports such as golf, tennis and basketball.
Still, some outdoor activities require more caution, especially in settings where you may be closer to others, such as a swimming pool.
"Some constraints need to be put on it, like the number of people who can be there at a certain given time have to be reduced [and] people must be discouraged from crowding around people that don't live with," he said.
Furthermore, a one-dose summer is not an invitation for different families to gather above provincial capacity limits or share cottage grounds.
"Are you going to share the cottage with another family with whom you don't typically associate? Well, that's a bit more problematic," he said.
What community transmission looks like: a 40-person BBQ in a park led to 105 high-risk contacts in schools who had to self-isolate for 14 days & be tested. Parents had to miss work, kids had to miss school & 105 more people in line for testing. All from a BBQ. Our actions matter <a href="https://t.co/xMq5hOWckk">pic.twitter.com/xMq5hOWckk</a>
—@OttawaHealthBut as long as people are protecting themselves with traditional mitigation tools like social distancing, Deonandan says the opportunities for Canadians to enjoy an outdoors one-dose summer are high.
To mask or not to mask? The answer hasn't changed
Though the vaccine might make some Canadians feel safe enough to remove their masks in public, Deonandan says we should expect to mask up for at least a couple more months, if not longer.
"It'll be safe when two doses are in you and two doses are [in] the other person, and suddenly you both can remove your mask to be close to each other," he said.
Let's not sprint to the finish line. Let's take your time and walk there comfortably lest we fall and break our nose before we get to the end.- Raywat Deonandan
Deonandan reiterates that one dose of the vaccine does not give full protection against the coronavirus, so a mask is a necessary additional layer of protection that should be used until cases go down.
This is an important point for business owners and managers like Tara McNally MacPhee, the visitor experience manager for Prince Edward Island National Park.
She says she's working with her team to make sure they're prepared for any range of coronavirus-related scenarios, including masking.
"So kind of doing some role-play, some scenario-based tabletop exercises. Just trying to anticipate what might come through the door with that one-dose summer," she said.
She says the fear of the unknown is what her team is focusing on, particularly due to their large number of young staffers. She wants to make sure they're mentally prepared for what might walk through the door.
"We may see some folks who perhaps aren't wearing their mask any longer," she said. "They feel that it's safe to do that or, you know, kind of being a little braver in terms of the restrictions that in place."
"So preparing our staff to have those difficult conversations — I guess that's kind of what we're really focused on."
Walking to the finish line
Though he doesn't expect Canada's one-dose summer to begin until at least July, Deonandan says he's filled "with confidence and optimism that we are on the path out of this mess."
He encourages Canadians not be tempted to give up their hard work too early.
"The finish line is in sight. Let's not sprint to the finish line. Let's take your time and walk there comfortably lest we fall and break our nose before we get to the end," he said.
Written by Mouhamad Rachini. Produced by Amanda Grant.
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