African countries will choose to feed their people over standing with Ukraine, advocate says

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If African nations need to pick between solidarity with Ukraine and feeding their people, expert and advocate Hassan Khannenje says they will choose the latter. 

More than 40 per cent of the continent's grain comes from Russia and Ukraine, making it even more complicated to feed people at a time when it's already difficult. 

It's hard for anyone to get grain from Ukraine. The country is struggling to export its wheat because Russia controls its major ports, and has naval blockades set up. That leaves about 20 million tonnes of wheat stuck in the country. 

And according to The Telegraph in the U.K., African countries are also being warned by the United States not to buy grain from Russia, following reports that Russia has stolen Ukrainian grain.  

Khannenje says all this puts African countries in an awkward position, because they are already struggling with drought and famine. 

He is the director of Kenyan think-tank HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies and he spoke with Matt Galloway on The Current about how the war is affecting people in Africa.

Given that there are many countries in the continent that rely on Ukrainian grain, that grain is not arriving right now. Describe how dire the situation is in those countries. 

I think it's extremely unfortunate because as you indicate there, these countries are already facing a period, a long period of famine and drought, not to mention the perpetual conflicts that have engulfed the region in much of the last two or three years. 

And so, as a region that relies on about half of its supplies coming from the conflict area of Russia and Ukraine, the situation is, at best, desperate. 

And I think that explains the leadership of African Union's visit to Moscow, which was not so much an endorsement of Putin or his policies, but so much out of a sense of desperation and the practical reality on the ground that requires them to take action. 

That visit by the African Union President, Macky Sall of Senegal, was seen by some people as giving Putin kind of cover in some ways. Sall referred to his "dear friend Vladimir." You say that it's not meant, or it shouldn't be seen, as an endorsement of Russia. 

No, it shouldn't be seen as an endorsement. The Africans have to choose between the moral requirement of expressing solidarity with the plight of the Ukrainian people, as well as the practical dimensions of facing imminent starvation for their own populations. 

And I think when it comes to that, Africans are more inclined to be able to seek ways in which they can address the imminent danger of starvation and death on the continent. 

This is important in part because of these claims that Russia has stolen tonnes of Ukrainian grain and is trying to sell it. What do you make of that? 

It's unfortunate. But I think it's also helpful that the world, especially the Western Hemisphere, the Western countries in Europe and the United States, understand that Africa did not exactly see the conflict in Ukraine the same way the West sees it. 

Africa generally sees it from the geopolitical lens, even though a lot of them expressed sympathy with Ukraine, in part because it's only international law and respects of sovereignty that could protect countries such as Africa. 

But at the same time, I think the recent history of unilateralism generally in the world in much of the last three years has removed the kind of faith that Africa has had in the international system. 

And they see, or at least the sentiment is, this appearance of double standards and that is totally contributing to Africa's ambivalence, but also Africa's attitudes, that sometimes may be jarring, especially to Western countries. 

And so when the United States warns African countries not to buy that grain that those authorities say has been stolen by Russian forces from Ukraine, you've said Africans don't care where they get their food from, and if someone is going to moralize, they are mistaken. How are those warnings being taken up? 

Those warnings are being taken as blackmail. Because in the absence of an alternative to plug in the shortfall, that's simply going to be seen as blackmail by big power, which runs the risk of actually pushing African countries quietly farther into the arms of this Sino-Russian alliance. 

We've talked on this program before about the drought in the Horn of Africa, the fact that COVID, and the economic effects of COVID, have driven the price of essential goods further and further out of reach for many people. Where does that leave those in those countries when the United States is telling them not to buy this grain that they believe has been stolen from Ukraine? 

And that is what the problem is, because as I mentioned, you do not moralize to a starving person. And so while they are being asked not to engage Moscow, at the same time, there's no alternative that's being provided to them. 

Remember the current situation, the current food crisis is also fuelling a very dangerous trend on the continent, is fuelling extremism, is fuelling conflict, and creating an increasingly volatile and unstable region, which, of course, may threaten, ultimately, international peace and security. 

And therefore, I think Africans are not exactly taking those warnings very kindly. And it runs the danger of actually destabilizing the initial goodwill and the initial collective kind of expression of solidarity that was there at the beginning of the conflict. 

And so it is not exactly a good place to be, and I think Washington and the Western alliance should be careful, especially in so far as dealing with the Global South is concerned. Because the sentiment of resentment is great. 

If the world is going to say, don't take this grain that Russia may have stolen, what could the world do instead? 

The world could provide alternatives. Perhaps they may not have sufficient wheat supplies, but they could be having corn or other staples that these countries are going to be able to consume, at least give to the populations. 

And because that was never offered, and has not been part of the mainstream policy thinking, especially in the global North, Africans are desperate to be able to find something. And so I think countries like the United States, that still have huge stockpiles of corn for instance, they can be able to offer us an alternative. 

But lecturing African countries without providing an alternative, I think is going to fall on deaf ears and it's likely to backfire. 

How worried are you about the possibility of starvation? 

The possibility of starvation, let's talk about the Horn of Africa, it's real, in Somalia, in Sudan, in Ethiopia, it's real. And so for Africans it's not a theoretical concept or a prospect that should be feared, is an actual experience they're living and they're going through. 

Written by Philip Drost. Produced by Joana Draghici, Howard Goldenthal and Kate Cornick. This Q&A was edited for length and clarity.