Ukraine's incursion into Russia was risky but 'worth it,' says history professor
Kyiv estimates troops captured 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory
Russian forces are struggling to repel Ukrainians troops more than a week after Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod on August 6.
Thousands of Ukrainian troops went to the front line, and Kyiv estimates that Ukrainian forces took over 28 Russian settlements and captured 1,000 square kilometres of land.
It's the largest setback for the Russian military nearly 30 months after launching its full-scale invasion of its neighbour and experts say it could lead to a change in the trajectory of the war.
Andres Kasekamp says Ukraine took a risk directly attacking Russia, but that it was one worth taking. Kasekamp is a history professor at the University of Toronto and the chair of Estonian studies at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.
Kasekamp spoke with The Current guest host Susan Bonner about why did Ukraine launched the surprise incursion, how will Russia respond and what comes next in a war that continues to grind on.
Here's part of their conversation.
How do you think about what is happening in the Kursk region and what Ukraine is hoping to achieve here?
I think Ukraine has several aims. They haven't sort of explicitly said what these end goals might be, which is wise of them. But the first is flipping the narrative. The Russians had been, for the past year, on the advance, and the Ukrainians had been on the back foot. It had been this war of attrition where the Russians had been throwing these massive forces at the Ukrainians and the Ukrainians were being ground down.
There were more and more voices calling for the Ukrainians to begin peace negotiations and give up their territory in exchange for peace. So the Ukrainians have managed to change the narrative, they've seized the initiative and surprised not only the Russians, but the world. And I think probably their own citizens as well, which is a very important morale boost for the Ukrainians, who have been taking heavy hits up to now. But now they're able to push back.
As you look ahead to what might follow this, what comes next? Ukrainian officials [have signalled] in the last 24 hours they have no interest in becoming occupiers, and hinting that perhaps this puts them into a better position to negotiate with Russia when it comes to that — about a land swap or a prisoner swap. Is that risky, do you think?
Of course. It's all a very big risk what the Ukrainians have undertaken. But it's worth it, as we've seen.
Because people, of course, initially thought that this would just be like some of the previous cross-border raids that had taken place, but now [Ukrainian forces have] been there and in control of the territory for more than a week and it looks like they're willing to hold onto it as long as they can.
That completely changes the way we look at the war and the way the Russians are forced to respond. So the swap of land, I think ... it's much too early to talk about that because I don't think the Russians are at all interested in any sort of peace negotiations at this point in time.
What can we expect from the Russians by way of response? President Vladimir Putin called the incursion an indiscriminate attack on civilians and he has vowed, quote, "a worthy response." What are you expecting?
The first part of his statement, of course, is false. It's not an indiscriminate attack on Russian civilians and that's a very remarkable contrast to the way the Russians invaded Ukraine and slaughtered civilians. The Ukrainians, by all accounts, have been very civilized and humane in the way they've treated the locals who've remained.
I'm actually fearful that when the Russians attack and try to recover these positions, that any of the Russian civilians who have remained will be bombed to smithereens by the Russians trying to retake their own territory because the Russians have very little regard for their own population.
What kind of an impact could this have on Ukraine's allies in the West? They were not informed about Ukraine's plans before it happened. What is your sense of how they are watching this?
The response from particularly the White House, but other Western allies, has been quite muted. Particularly since this whole war [started], the U.S. has been very concerned about potential escalation. And they seem to be quite chill with this at the moment, which is surprising—
Why do you think that is?
Because the Ukrainians have basically demonstrated that all of this logic that we've been following thus far in the West of this fear of escalation has been simply self-deterrence on the side of the West.
Ukrainians have, simply by their actions, shown what is possible, and all these imaginary Russian red lines which we've been afraid to cross — for instance supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, with supplying Ukraine with tanks, with supplying Ukraine with fighter planes.
And forbidding them from using them to go into Russia.
It's been a huge struggle to even get that equipment to Ukraine because every time the West was worried that, "Oh no, Putin's going to launch World War III and attack with nuclear missiles," and every time the Ukrainians have shown that these red lines are completely a bluff. And it's been even more evident in this case when they've crossed what would be the ultimate red line: advancing into Russian territory itself.
Yet yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said what's happening has created a real dilemma for Putin. If [Putin] is also embarrassed by this ... does that not make it perhaps more dangerous?
It does for Putin himself in the sense that he can perhaps feel that his own regime and his own legitimacy is coming under threat. Because he, of course, is the protector of the Russian people and the Russian empire, as such. And to see how he's been humiliated by the Ukrainians, of course, does put him under pressure.
But what is noteworthy is Putin tends to react. When things go badly, he goes silent. The first few days of the incursion, Putin was nowhere to be seen because they didn't really have a response ready, so they were generally taken by surprise.
But the Russians have thrown everything they have at Ukraine already.
[What are] your thoughts … on the chances of peace going forward in this relentless war.
The only way to achieve peace is through Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, and that's what the Ukrainians are trying to show at the moment by taking the initiative.
Because, well, we haven't had lasting peace with Russia before. There was, don't forget, 2014 when the Russians invaded, took Crimea and the eastern part of the Donbas. [And] there were the peace negotiations, the Minsk Accords, afterwards and that didn't satisfy the Russians. That didn't stop them from launching a full-scale invasion.
But it's not just about territory. The Russians want full dominance over Ukraine.
With files from Reuters. Interview produced by Niza Lyapa Nondo. Edited for length and clarity
