Over budget, way behind: Why we're so bad at getting big things done
Humans have historically failed to deliver megaprojects, says Bent Flyvbjerg
The next time you take on a major project, remember this advice from economic geographer Bent Flyvbjerg: think slow and act fast.
Flyvbjerg is the world's leading expert on megaprojects, whether it be the costly construction of Olympic stadiums or the seemingly simple kitchen renovations.
The new book How Big Things Get Done, co-authored by Flyvbjerg and Canadian journalist Dan Gardner, unpacks and exposes the errors in judgment and decision-making that can ultimately lead projects to fail.
"We all have this bias for action," Flyvbjerg, who is also a professor at Oxford University and the University of Copenhagen, told The Current host Matt Galloway. "Whatever pops into our heads first and is available is what we cling on to … [but] that's a bad idea. If you do that, you haven't thought through the problems and that will slow you down."
"It's really cheap to think, so that's where you want to make the effort to get things right first. Then you can act fast and save a lot of money."
While it sounds obvious, the Danish expert says it's not so easy for people to spend their time planning. He has consulted on major projects ranging from the construction of stadiums to the release of major motion pictures.
But the data from those projects showed that no matter what raw materials were used, each project involved people who were making choices without taking enough time to think about them first.
As an example, Gardner imagined a home renovation that starts with a rough $170,000 plan, but balloons to a cost of $1 million — driven by problems that could have been identified by a more detailed initial assessment.
"It takes experience to complete a megaproject on the scale of the Olympic Games, but also home renovations," he said. Montrealers know this well, as the construction of its Olympic Stadium caused all sorts of trouble for decades.
It opened just barely in time for the 1976 Olympics. It had to be repaired several times in the years since, particularly its roof. Its budget ran up to $1.47 billion that wasn't fully paid until 2006.
CBC Archives: The troubled past and uncertain future of the aging Olympic Stadium
Public infrastructure and accountability
Gardner shares another example of what he calls a failed megaproject: reports in January about the $6.5 billion shipbuilding program for the navy and coast guard, which ballooned from an initial projected cost of $4.3 billion.
"At the very outset of that project the government said, 'We're going to give these extremely large contracts to Canadian shipbuilding companies,' and everyone applauded because that meant Canadian jobs," Gardner said.
"[But] how many people stood up and said, 'Wait a second. Canadian shipbuilding industries are not the world's leaders. They're not the most experienced…. You are necessarily going to jeopardize the project. You're going to boost the cost potentially radically,' And that's exactly what's happened."
The Department of National Defence and Public Services and Procurement Canada both blame the increase on the labour shortages and supply chain issues brought on by the pandemic, resulting in higher shipping costs and higher costs for spare parts.
Gardner thinks that if there had been a public discussion last year, laying out the cost to the Canadian public, the situation would look much different.
That sense of transparency and accountability, he says, is advantageous to a megaproject, and can help get the work done properly, on time and on budget.
But in Flyvbjerg's experience consulting with businesses, governments and transnational institutions, it's quite common for project managers to "strategically misrepresent" those plans in an effort to receive swift approval.
"Actually, it's dodgy, you know, and there are people who have been fined and who have gone to prison over this," he said. "People don't want to go on the record because they endanger themselves and their organizations."
As an example, he points to former Westinghouse executive Jeffrey Benjamin, who was indicted on charges of conspiracy and wire fraud for his alleged role in concealing cost overruns and delays in the construction of two nuclear reactors in South Carolina. The project was eventually scrapped, but not before racking up a $9 billion US bill, according to Reuters.
Pixar's secret to success
For their book, the authors picked the brains of project managers at Pixar, the makers of beloved blockbuster animated films.
Pixar's creators take many steps before they start animating the actual scenes that make up the final version of a film, they said.
Flyvberg learned all about chief creative officer Pete Docter's process, which starts with brainstorming ideas in the shower. Docter will see an image, such as a cast of characters representing a young girl's emotions. After a few days, if he still thinks it's a good idea, he will sit down and flesh it out by writing a 10- to 12-page synopsis. The aforementioned idea eventually became the 2015 hit Inside Out.
Then, Docter or another director will share that synopsis with his colleagues and look for feedback. That process fleshes out the synopsis until it can reach a fuller script, perhaps around 100 to 120 pages in length.
After that comes the storyboarding, testing out scenes with music and even potential voice actors and performers before making the final decisions. This process can take years and go through multiple versions before assembling the final version.
"Pixar has this smooth process for the shooting because they do all this preparation before they start," said Flyvberg.
When it's finally time to take action, the company pulls out the expensive animation computers, hires famous actors for the voiceovers, and joins forces with talented composers for the movie score.
"That's where it becomes expensive and that's where you don't want to be hesitant, not knowing what you're doing, or have to correct errors," Flyvberg said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from Murray Brewster. Audio produced by Julie Crysler.
