Day 6

Trump's odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for Sept 29

Slate writer and editor Dahlia Lithwick says Trump's difficulties this week, and the results of the Albama Senate primary, might make Republicans less likely to stand by him.
In the Impeach-O-Meter reading for Sept. 30, Slate writer and editor Dahlia Lithwick says Donald Trump's chances of impeachment are rising.

When Donald Trump generates headlines, Day 6 fires up the "Impeach-O-Meter," inviting political experts to estimate the odds his presidency will end in impeachment. These are, of course, subjective and hypothetical scores and the impeachment process is complex and dependent on many factors.

U.S. Representative Al Green is at it again.

Earlier this week he stood in the U.S. Congress, angered by President Donald Trump's targeting of NFL players who've been protesting racism, and announced plans to introduce articles of impeachment against the president.

         

          

His attempt will almost certainly fail. Still, it's been a turbulent week for President Trump — and it adds to the talk of impeachment that has been in the air since before he even took office.

This week Trump came under fire for his perceived neglect of hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico; the latest Republican health care bill collapsed; and his preferred candidate for the Senate primary in Alabama went down to defeat.

That's motivated us to fire up the Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter.

We're ranking the odds of Donald Trump's presidency ending in impeachment, from one — meaning totally safe in the Oval Office — to 100, meaning impeachment is imminent.

When we last checked at the end of July, Quartz White House correspondent Heather Timmons put the odds at 30 per cent.

Today, Slate writer and editor Dahlia Lithwick gives us her take.

"I think it's awfully tempting to say 'hey, Trump's got a Katrina'. This utter failure to respond [appropriately] to the massive humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico. Except, I don't think he's bothered by it. I would say exactly the same thing about the fallout from his targeting NFL players, I don't think that ups the impeach-ability factor either. I think what you want to watch is attacks this week on John McCain and Mitch McConnell. And, most prominently, the failure of his hand-picked candidate in the Alabama primary and the overwhelming win by Roy Moore, who he had condemned. And you're going to see, I think, talk of impeachment rise with the Senate finally saying 'it's costing us more than its benefiting us to be on his side.'" 

                          

So where does Dahlia Lithwick place the probability of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

"I'm gonna go out on an un-scientific limb and say 35 per cent."

Dahlia Lithwick puts Trump's chances of impeachment at 35 per cent.

               

It's on the rise! Dahlia Lithwick of Slate has bumped the Impeach-O-Meter to 35 per cent.

That's this week's edition of the Impeach-O-Meter. We'll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come.

To hear Dahlia Lithwick give her Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the 'Listen' button at the top of this page.