Engineer warns spring melt could spell disaster for Iraqis living below Mosul Dam
Iraqi forces continue to battle the Islamic State for control of Mosul. But up the river from the city sits a far bigger threat to the people who live there.
The Mosul Dam is holding back a giant wall of water, but just barely. The ground underneath it is crumbling. It's been crumbling for decades, held intact by regular injections of concrete.
But those injections lapsed when the Islamic State took over the dam. The area is back under government control. But this spring, melting waters will seriously test whatever strength is left in that foundation.
Nadhir Al-Ansari is an engineering professor who's been consulting the Iraqi government on what to do about the Mosul Dam. He spoke with As it Happens guest host Helen Mann from Luleå, Sweden. Here is some of their conversation.
Helen Mann: Professor Al-Ansari, this dam has been described as a nuclear bomb with an unpredictable fuse. That sounds so frightening. How catastrophic would a collapse be?
Since 1986, the gypsum rocks were dissolving, causing seepage under the foundation of the dam.- Nadhir Al-Ansari
Nadhir Al-Ansari: They were talking about the worst situation. When the dam is fully impounded — that means the capacity of water is about 11 billion cubic metres — in such a case, if that dam fails, the European Community predicted that about seven million people will be homeless, not to mention the infrastructure of all the cities that will be destroyed downstream, 'til the capital Baghdad. And the casualties, according to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, will be about half-a-million to one million people will die.
HM: What is the problem with this dam? What's wrong that poses such a threat?
NA: They built the dam on rocks of gypsum and limestone. And these rocks are highly soluble — especially the gypsum rocks. And since they started the impounding of the dam in 1986, the gypsum rocks were dissolving, causing seepage under the foundation of the dam.
HM: As I understand it, the dam was built as a jobs and a local improvement project by Saddam Hussein. Was the government at the time aware of the risks?
NA: Yes. In fact, after impounding in 1986, I was asked by the minister of irrigation to go and investigate the problem. And when I handed [in] my report, I told him there were plenty of geological mistakes where the consultant has underestimated the geological problems. They didn't believe me at that time. I was asked to give a presentation in front of the board, and the president of the consultants, contractors, and the deputy minister. And they realized the actual problem of the dam. And they started 24-hour grouting operations, just to elongate the span life of the dam. And in 1988, they designed another dam, 40 kilometres downstream. They did 40 percent of the work 'til 1991. And then the work stopped due to UN sanctions.
Our worries, in fact, begin in April, because it's the flood time of the River Tigris and, if there is a huge amount of water coming in, then that will be disastrous.- Nadhir Al-Ansari
HM: What's involved when you're talking about grouting of the scale of the Mosul Dam?
NA: When you have this huge number of dissolution of rocks, you have to put something there instead of the grout material. If you don't put anything, then you'll have huge cavities and then there will be a collapse of the dam. But the grouting will never stop the dissolution of the beds there.
HM: What is the latest information that you have received about the condition of the Mosul Dam?
NA: Three months ago, Trevi — an Italian company — the government signed a contract with this company to do grouting operations, after a period of 18 months of no grouting, when ISIS occupied the dam area and all the engineers and workers ran away and the machines were destroyed. And that means — according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — about 10,000 cubic metres of cavities have been formed during that period. So Trevi now are trying to do grouting operations to try to fill all these cavities and they are supposed to work for about a year.
HM: You described to us what would be the worst-case scenario, if there was a complete collapse of the dam. Is it possible that there could be a lesser incidence?
The best thing to be done is to complete the other dam downstream so we can abandon Mosul Dam and use the other dam instead.- Nadhir Al-Ansari
NA: Yes, it is possible because the dam now is not full. It's about 40 percent full. And that means, if the dam fails now, the casualties will be much less and the areas that will be covered with water will be much less. But our worries, in fact, begin in April, because it's the flood time of the River Tigris and, if there is a huge amount of water coming in, then that will be disastrous.
HM: How seriously is the Iraqi government taking this threat?
NA: They are counting on Trevi's work now. And they have been contacting me and my friends. And they are trying to form some sort of a meeting of international experts in Baghdad or Duhok near the dam area to discuss the possible solutions to be taken and measures to overcome this problem.
HM: You've made clear that you don't think the work by Trevi is going to be sufficient. What do you think needs to be done?
NA: I think grouting operations, as I said, will never solve the problem — it will just elongate the span life of the dam. The best thing to be done is to complete the other dam downstream so we can abandon Mosul Dam and use the other dam instead.
HM: Do you think people are currently safe living downriver — should they be evacuated?
NA: Of course, there should be an emergency evacuation plan. And, in fact, the European Community did such a plan. And they asked me to attend the meeting last June and I went to Brussels for two days and they were coordinating with the UN also. But everything [has been] halted due to the war going on between the Iraqi government and ISIS on Mosul City.
HM: Do you think people living beneath this dam are aware of the risk?
NA: Some of them, yes, but the majority, no, because the area within the vicinity of the dam is still occupied by ISIS. And for this reason, ISIS tell people that the dam is very safe because they don't want to have problems with the locals. Because if the locals are aware of this fact, of course, they want to leave and this will create problems for ISIS.
This transcript has been edited for length and clarity. For more on this story, listen to our full interview with Nadhir Al-Ansari.