Putin's veiled nuclear threats 'a sign of weakness,' says former Russian foreign minister

Story Transcript

Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't "suicidal" enough to start a nuclear war, says a former Russian foreign minister now living in the U.S. 

As the war rages on in Ukraine, Putin has ordered his country's nuclear deterrent forces to be on high alert, and told French President Emmanuel Macron that "the worst is yet to come."

But Andrei Kozyrev says those threats are nothing but an act of desperation as Russia faces a greater resistance in Ukraine than Putin expected. 

Kozyrev was Russia's foreign minister from 1990 to 1996. He now lives in Miami. Here is part of his conversation with As It Happens guest host Helen Mann. 

Knowing Vladimir Putin, does it surprise you at all that he is showing little willingness to compromise right now?

It does not.

He miscalculated both the Ukrainian resistance and actually the fact that the Ukrainians, [while] being Russian brothers, are a separate and proud nation. And he miscalculated the Western resolve to stand against him.

But he wants to kind of save as much as he can from this adventure. And that's why he resorts to nuclear threats.

All this is acts of desperation, because you can't resort to nuclear threats unless you are in a very desperate position. So it's not a sign of strength; it's a sign of weakness.

But there are fears that Mr. Putin, feeling cornered, might be tempted to follow through on some of these threats. Is the fact that the war is going poorly for his forces making the situation even more dangerous?

Cornered? Yes. But suicidal? No, I don't think so.

I mean, those guys — I mean, the top of the clique, including, of course, Putin himself — they are life lovers. They like good wines. They like good cognac. They like good … entertainment and all that. And they have families, also. Some of them have families in the United States. Probably some have [families] even in Canada. And most of them, of course, have [families] in London or in Europe.

And all of those [family members] will die — I mean, we all will die if it comes to nuclear war.

The nuclear blackmail should be just eliminated from the calculation here. Otherwise, he will win all over the place. He wants [to be] the world dictator, not only a Russian dictator. Imagine if you give him Ukraine now for nuclear blackmail. Where does he stop? I mean, it would be like a magic wand in hands of a black sorcerer.

What do you think is going on in Putin's head right now? 

As I said, it's a miscalculation. But there is also his sense of impunity, which should be broken now, but it grew up like a cancer.

Had 50 per cent of these sanctions which are imposed today ... been imposed in 2014, there would be no crisis today. But he feels impunity. And also [that] contributes, of course, to his quote-unquote madness, which is very well co-ordinated. It is a madness of convenience. It is not madness [in the] medical sense. ... It's convenient for him to scare the world.

The other source, of course, is that he probably believes that he's a genius, especially when ... former American president [Donald Trump] says that he's a genius.

There are ... Putin's acolytes who are telling him that day and night, that he's a genius. And you can get really crazy. I mean, you might start really believing that you are a genius.

But all that could be remedied … by toughness on the Western side and resistance, which is under way. And it's remarkable and it's admirable in Ukraine.

The more the Russian soldiers see what they are doing to our brothers — because they are our brothers — the more they will probably come to their senses and start to ask questions.- Andrei Kozyrev, former Russian foreign minister 

You have made a call to all Russian diplomats. Tell us what you're asking of them.

I am asking of them literally to resign. But I don't expect that too many of them will.

But I want this ... to wake them up on what they are doing, the diplomats and the military. They are supposed to defend their countries to protect their people. And now it's destroying Russia across the world.

The current foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was once your deputy. What do you make of his role in this? Does it appear that he's changed since you knew him?

[Laughs] Of course, 100 per cent.

He was my deputy. He was my friend. And he was kind of a brother in arms at that time.

How does that make you feel, seeing your one-time friend in this role?

It makes me feel sick in my stomach when I see Lavrov and some other former friends and former colleagues doing what they are doing now.

You say that Putin is likely to believe the people around him, the yes-men who are saying he is a genius. He also seems to, you know, have the government under control and now, of course, has cracked down on any free media in Russia. Do you think there are any forces in the country that could stop him right now?

Even dictators, even the tyrants, they don't live on the moon. They live right there in the country, and they are surrounded by people, and people have to respond to their orders. And that very much depends [on] how they would respond.

I mean, do they make every effort to fulfil? Or [do] they start to sabotage, or they start to hesitate or they start to revolt? I mean, all that is in the cards very much. 

And that's the story of all tyrants. Even [Joseph] Stalin supposedly was poisoned. There is a strong belief amongst many historians that he did not just die himself, but he was poisoned.

[The Russian] economy is in very bad shape even before the sanctions. So yes, it all matters. It all matters. And that's why [we need] sanctions against so-called oligarchs — but more even against the government officials, because the government officials are also oligarchs, but they make money out of their official positions serving the regime.

So let me just be clear, you are calling for even more international sanctions than have been applied so far?

Much more.

Against who else?

Against the government officials.

The European Union sanctioned all the members of the Russian parliament … and those people, they bow to orders. They just follow the orders from the Kremlin. But they are, many of them, very rich people, powerful people. They have their own positions. And they want to take money from the regime in Russia, but to spend it in, say, Canada and America and in the United States [and] Europe. And that's where you hit them.

At this point, there's every sign the war may drag on for a very long time. Where do you think this ends?

It's unpredictable, but it might be rather small because there are already signs that there is considerable discontent inside the Russian [Armed] Forces. And the more the Russian soldiers see what they are doing to our brothers — because they are our brothers — the more they will probably come to their senses and start to ask questions.

There are many, many factors which might end this war rather soon, but it might be a protracted situation. 

Written by Sheena Goodyear. Interview produced by Chris Harbord. Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.