Will support for Trump be shattered by Cohen and Manafort's legal woes? Don't bet on it, here's why

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TODAY:

• Why the legal problems of Donald Trump insiders Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort are unlikely to shake his supporters
• Hawaii has declared a state of emergency in advance of a powerful hurricane that is expected to make landfall as soon as tomorrow night
• Theresa May's government is set to release about 20 of the 84 briefing notes that departments and ministries have prepared to flag the predicted day-after consequences of an abrupt, no-agreement split from the European Union
• Missed The National last night? Watch it here

Trump's faithful following

Back at the beginning of 2016, Donald Trump famously boasted that he could stand in the middle of New York's Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and still not lose any voters.

He was more prescient than most believed.

The U.S. president has now been directly implicated in a felony crime — albeit a federal campaign finance violation rather than murder — but if anyone thinks the news is going to shake his base, they haven't been paying attention.

As of today, Trump's average approval rating sits somewhere between 41.8 per cent and 43.4 per cent, depending of which methodology you trust. And some Republican-friendly pollsters put it closer to 46 per cent.

Gallup's survey from last week found that 42 per cent of respondents approved of how Trump is doing his job. That's down from his 45 per cent high-point in mid-June, but still three points better than his term average.

More tellingly, it's a number that compares favourably with other presidents:

• Barack Obama had a 44 per cent approval rating during the same week of his first term.
• Bill Clinton scored 41 per cent.
• Ronald Reagan was slightly higher at 42 per cent.
• Both Bush I and Bush II scored significantly better, 75 per cent for father and 67 per cent for son, but they were involved in wars at the time.

Of course, the polls haven't yet caught up with Paul Manafort's conviction and Michael Cohen's plea deal. But consider the fact that Trump's approval rating actually went up after his July Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin, a meeting that many media pundits and Washington insiders considered vaguely treasonous.

Trump's numbers remain strong for a simple reason: Republicans love him. Gallup's latest survey, for example, found that 87 per cent of GOP voters approve of the president, while a recent Reuters/Ipsos Data poll found that 81 per cent of Republicans are content.

The same can't be said for Democrats, with seven per cent admitting to liking Trump in the Gallup poll, or four per cent if you chose to believe a recent Quinnipiac University National Poll, just outside the margin of error.

Trump also has a problem with independents, who now make up 41 per cent of the electorate, versus the 26 per cent of Americans who self-identify as Republican and 30 per cent who call themselves Democrats.

Gallup puts Trump's approval rating among independents at 39 per cent nationally. A recent NBC/Marist poll found that it's trending even lower in Arizona and Ohio, states that Trump won in 2016.

Trump does face some significant hurdles. Only 31 per cent of Americans admit to liking him as a person, according the Quinnipiac University survey. Which is roughly the same percentage of people in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan — key Midwestern states — who say he deserves a second term as president.

And the chances of Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives in the November midterms look increasingly strong, while the Senate may be a toss up.

But Trump is far from finished.

He remains Republicans best hope of driving out the vote on Nov. 6, and the White House plans to have him on the road, whipping up partisans as much as possible.

Right now, the betting is that he is a bigger asset than liability.

But given what happened to members of his inner circle in just one hour yesterday, the next 10 weeks should feel like several lifetimes.

More trouble in Hawaiian paradise

Hawaii has declared a state of emergency in advance of a powerful hurricane that is expected to make landfall as soon as tomorrow night.

Hurricane Lane weakened slightly overnight, dropping from a Category 5 to a Category 4 storm, but it is still packing sustained winds of up to 249 kilometres per hour.

Such storms rarely touch the islands, with only two hurricanes and two tropical storms having made landfall since 1959. But the warnings of the potential for serious flooding, wind damage and even tornadoes are being taken seriously.

Schools and university campuses will be closed for the remainder of the week, and non-essential state workers on the Big Island and Maui have been told to stay home. The National Guard is on standby, and the Red Cross is preparing emergency shelters. Airlines have issued travel advisories and are allowing customer to rebook flights free of charge.

And parallels are already being drawn to 1992's Hurricane Iniki. The Category 4 storm hit Kauai, killing six people, destroying close to 1,500 homes and forcing the makers of Jurassic Park to shut down filming.

It's been a tough year for Hawaii.

In April, hundreds of people had to be rescued and evacuated following heavy rains and flash flooding on Kauai.

More than 530 homes were damaged or destroyed by the freak storm that dumped in excess of 1,000 millimetres of precipitation in just 24 hours. Months later, one popular resort remains closed due to road damage.

And then there was the eruption of the Kilauea volcano on Big Island, which began on May 3.

More than 700 homes were destroyed by lava flows and dozens of people were injured, while tourism suffered due to closures and flight-cancelling ash plumes.

The good news is the eruption appears to nearing an end.

Just in time for the next disaster.

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Brexit reality check

The reality of a no-deal Brexit is about to hit home for the British public.

Theresa May's government is set to release about 20 of the 84 briefing notes that departments and ministries have prepared to flag the predicted day-after consequences of an abrupt, no-agreement split from the European Union.

The documents, which will reportedly cover such topics as agricultural subsidies, nuclear research, and the future of London's financial services sector, identify the problems that might be sparked by a complete divorce from Europe and the actions that the government expects to take to remedy them.

There are also suggestions that a paper on the future of Britain's National Health Service will also be included, following a report in Monday's Times of London about concerns among hospital administrators over drug shortages and a mass exodus of foreign staff.

"As you will see when we set out our plans, some of these hair-raising scare stories are very far from the truth and I look forward to explaining the context on Thursday," Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, said yesterday.

May is clearly hoping that spelling out the worst-case scenario will put pressure on both the "hard-Brexiteers" within her cabinet and recalcitrant European negotiators to accept some sort of compromise solution that will see Britain exit the EU more gradually, with an eye to maintaining a close trading relationship.

Yesterday, Raab tried to soothe concerns about the future of European citizens who are currently living and working the U.K.

"We hugely value the contribution of EU citizens here in the U.K.," he told the BBC. "It is inconceivable we would do anything other than make sure that they are legally in a position where they're secure to stay."

But much work remains to be done to unravel a 45-year relationship with Europe, and the drop-dead exit date of March 29, 2019, is fast approaching.

For its part, the EU is in no hurry.

May has said that she wants a deal formalized by this October's scheduled EU summit meeting to leave enough time for ratification by the U.K. parliament and Europe's legislatures. But yesterday, Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, signaled that the Europeans won't be ready for a meeting until November or maybe even December.

Formal talks resumed last week after a three-week summer break, and the two sides have agreed to hold "continuous" meetings to avoid further delays.

The rest of the U.K. no-deal briefing papers are scheduled to be released in early September.

Quote of the moment

"The continuation and further development of the DPRK's nuclear program and related statements by the DPRK are a cause for grave concern."

- A new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency warns that North Korea is still pushing ahead and developing nuclear weapons, despite promises to "denuclearize."

What The National is reading

• Canada's new Moscow embassy sits empty for 10 years, costs $26 million (CBC)
• Hungary using starvation tactics against asylum-seekers (Deutsche Welle)
• Saudi Arabia seeks death penalty for five activists, rights group says (CBC)
• Cost of new U.S. coal rules: up to 1,400 more deaths a year (NY Times)
• U.K. police bust 'sophisticated' illegal gun factory (Reuters)
• Professor accused of killing wife, daughter with gas-filled yoga ball (South China Morning Post)
• Japanese fleet catches 177 whales in latest hunt (AFP)
• Sunken Avro Arrow model recovered from Lake Ontario (CBC)

A few words on …

Staying classy under pressure.

Today in history

Aug. 22, 1972: 'Nos Expos' are the talk of the town

This CBC Radio roundtable during the dog days of Montreal's fourth big-league season focuses on the small pleasures, like the cozy confines of Jarry Park and the chance to see the real star players on opposing clubs. The Expos would go on to finish fifth in NL East, 26.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. And the only real on-field memory remains Bill Stoneman's no-hitter against the Mets — the first ever pitched outside the U.S.

Archives10:31'Nos Expos' are the talk of the town

A tiny stadium, creative organist and unusual baseball terminology make Expos games popular with both tourists and locals.

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