No matter who leads them into the next election, Liberals still need to think about governing

On Monday, Justin Trudeau was still standing. 

As he stood on the floor of the Goodyear factory in Napanee, Ont., Trudeau had been prime minister for eight years and 282 days — one day more than Brian Mulroney, who recently was hailed as a giant of Canadian politics. Having also recently passed Sir Robert Borden, who saw the country through the First World War, Trudeau is now the seventh longest-serving prime minister in Canadian history.

As recently as six weeks ago — after the Liberal Party's loss in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection — it wasn't clear how much time Trudeau had left as prime minister. Perhaps it still isn't. Just a few weeks ago, anonymous Liberals were telling the Toronto Star that there needed to be a large overhaul at the top of the government. The Star's sources listed no fewer than nine ministers — a quarter of cabinet — Liberal MPs reportedly wanted to see moved.

But when asked on Monday whether he had given thought to changing his cabinet, Trudeau declined to play along.

"One of the things we've been focused on, not just over the last few weeks but over the last few years, is making sure we're investing in Canadians," Trudeau said, pivoting hard to the purpose of his visit to the Goodyear factory.

"The conversations I have with the members of my team leave me more optimistic and more focused than ever on fighting for Canadians every step of the way. We're going to continue to make sure we put Canadians first in everything we do."

He didn't say it, but Trudeau's answer may have implied that it doesn't do the Liberals much good to be seen or heard worrying about themselves right now.

That's likely true — no matter how much some voters and any number of journalists might enjoy tales of political intrigue. And even if their days seem numbered, the Liberals are also still in charge of a government with an actual agenda to implement and actual concerns to address between now and the next election, whenever that might be.

But the questions raised by Toronto-St. Paul's might hang over these Liberals for a while yet.

The frenzy has died down — but for how long?

Those unnamed Liberals may have wanted a shakeup in the wake of that byelection, but not much seems to have changed. Trudeau is still prime minister. Except for one small alteration, the cabinet that was in place before Toronto-St. Paul's is still the cabinet he has now.

And even if the frenzy that followed the byelection has died down, it's not hard to see how it could come rushing back. 

Trudeau typically meets his caucus at a retreat before the fall sitting of Parliament. The first and last question for any MP who strays within earshot of a reporter at this year's gathering will be about whether someone in the government needs to step aside.

Then, on September 16, there will be a byelection in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. A loss in that Liberal-held riding would pour fuel on the fire started by Toronto-St. Paul's.

By Trudeau's own standards, the prime minister has been relatively quiet since that June loss. Between then and Monday, Trudeau had done only two news conferences. A few weeks were spent on vacation with his family. When he did make public appearances — showing up at civic celebrations across the country — he didn't make announcements or take questions from reporters.

In Napanee on Monday, he had something to announce — federal support for new private investment in a factory that will manufacture tires for electric vehicles — and some things he clearly wanted to say. Referencing the Olympics, Trudeau said Canadians could stand to celebrate themselves and their accomplishments more. 

Turning to the reason he was there, he held out the agreement with Goodyear as an example of the Liberal government's willingness to invest in the future of the automotive sector and its commitment to fighting climate change. Continued private investment in Canadian industry, he said, demonstrates this country's many advantages, including the quality of Canadian workers. And these investments, he argued, will mean reliable, community-building jobs for people in places like Napanee for years to come.

"This investment, this confidence in Canada and in Canadians, means there's not just going to be a fourth generation of tire workers here in Napanee," he said. "It means there's going to be a fifth and sixth and seventh generation."

He threw in an explanation of why EVs need special tires (apparently it's because the cars weigh more but also make less noise).

"So once again," Trudeau said, "today's announcement proves what our government has said for a long time: that good, responsible climate policy is good, responsible economic policy."

If Trudeau has an argument he wants to make, it only remains to be seen how many voters are still willing to listen (and whether enough Liberals are willing to let him continue trying).

The Liberals still have a lot to do

But regardless of who is sitting around the cabinet table in the months ahead, there are important pieces of this government's agenda that have yet to be put firmly in place — items that also seem to hang over any decision by the NDP to withdraw from the confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals.

The First Nations Clean Water Act, the Online Harms Act and the Nature Accountability Act are all still before the House of Commons. So is a bill to expand voting access ahead of the next election. Legislation setting out the parameters of a national pharmacare program is before the Senate.

While the Trudeau government has committed to funding school food programs and a targeted pharmacare program that will provide free contraception and diabetes treatment, Health Minister Mark Holland still has to negotiate agreements with provinces to implement those commitments. Legislation to to implement changes to capital gains taxes — changes there were made, in part, to pay for school food programs and pharmacare — also still needs to be passed.

Three major pieces of environmental policy are at varying stages of completion: a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, methane regulations and clean electricity regulations. The cap and the methane regulations are critical if Canada is to reach its emissions target for 2030. All three measures would go a long way toward putting Canada on a path to net-zero emissions by 2050.

A new home retrofit program, aimed at lower-income households, is supposed to launch next year. A few days before the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection, the government also announced a push to streamline regulation to make it easier to build clean energy projects.

Any number of other items could be added to the list — including further measures to spur housing construction. 

It's not unreasonable for a party trailing by 20 points in the polls to worry about who should lead it into the next election. But every day in government is a chance to actually do something. And if the Liberals can't count on having too many more such days, they might at least use them wisely.