Mark Carney has answered some questions — but many more remain
The Liberal leadership debates showed his limits as a communicator
Near the end of Tuesday night's Liberal leadership debate — the second and last time all four candidates will be on the same stage together before a winner is announced on March 9 — Justin Trudeau's would-be successors were asked how they would differentiate themselves from him.
Chrystia Freeland, who until two months ago was Trudeau's most trusted lieutenant, initially tried to sidestep the question. Mark Carney, the former central banker who has only advised the prime minister on a volunteer basis, was much more ready to answer.
"I'm different in the following respects," he said, citing his intention to be "laser focused" on the economy and his tendency to be "much more of a hands-on manager" focused on "results and getting things done."
Karina Gould, the 37-year-old former cabinet minister, nearly challenged the premise of the question.
"I'm actually really proud of a lot of the work that we did as a government," she said, listing the Canada Child Benefit, funding for child care and action on climate change.
A few minutes later, in her closing statement, Gould said the party would "only win the next election by being Liberals, proudly, not 'Conservative lite'" — seemingly a shot across the bow of Carney, who Gould challenged repeatedly on Tuesday.
Unfortunately for Gould, the argument for largely staying the course was effectively lost months ago. When Trudeau finally resigned in early January, the Liberals were running more than 20 points behind the Conservatives in public opinion polling. Even Gould, in her closing statement on Tuesday night, said the Liberals needed to do more than "just tinker around the edges."
And of the leading contenders for the Liberal leadership, Carney most easily carries the mantle of change. He did not serve in Trudeau's cabinet. He is an obviously different kind of character. And he moved quickly to embrace a focus on macroeconomics, generating growth and fiscal restraint — broad concerns the Trudeau government was regularly accused of neglecting.
That ability to represent change might have been enough for Carney to seize the Liberal race. The threat of Donald Trump — and the collective realization that Canada is facing not just a trade war, but potentially annexation — probably only further bolstered the case for the even-keeled Carney, who can at least point to a track record of holding important public offices and managing through crises.
But Gould's gentle contrarianism in the face of Carney's seemingly inevitable victory was a useful reminder of how many more questions Carney might have to answer and how much more the next Liberal leader likely still has to prove.
Conservatives aren't waiting for Carney to win
By every available metric, Carney is running away with this race. He has been endorsed by 86 members of the Liberal caucus (Freeland has the support of 26 MPs, Gould just two). And he is lapping the field on fundraising. Perhaps most tellingly, Conservative MPs are now holding daily news conferences to air their complaints about him.
Nothing that happened at the debates seems likely to fundamentally reshape the leadership race. It would be a true surprise now if Carney did not somehow become the 14th leader in the history of the Liberal Party of Canada on March 9.
But even if Carney is on the verge of winning the first political contest he ever entered, he is still an inexperienced and largely untested politician. The consensus view after Monday night's debate was that Carney needs to work on his French. But even Tuesday's debate showed that Carney is not a naturally theatrical performer or a particularly snappy communicator. His acknowledgement that he is not a "career politician" is an obvious attempt to turn his limits into a virtue.
It also might suggest a degree of self-awareness and a reasoned judgment that he is better off not trying to pretend to be something he isn't.
As flattering as the Conservative Party's scorn might be, Pierre Poilievre and his team have surely only begun to poke at Carney's public image, platform and biography. And at least until an election is called, the Conservatives will enjoy a significant financial advantage to broadcast their attacks (one attack ad is already airing on television).
Conservatives overstate their case when they try to portray Carney as Trudeau's top economic adviser, but Carney would become leader of a party that has been in power for more than nine years. He won't be able to completely declaim everything that happened over the last decade or escape answering questions about any problems the Trudeau government leaves behind.
Carney has a set of issues he is keen to talk about: the economy, getting major infrastructure built, responding to the threat posed by Trump. But Poilievre is going to push him to talk about crime and the opioid crisis and the cost of groceries.
Karina Gould's useful challenge
Gould also showed Carney how he could be challenged from the political left.
The Burlington MP has not run a particularly aggressive campaign, but she differentiated herself on Tuesday night as a voice for concerns like poverty, homelessness, young people and climate change. She advocated for strengthening the social safety net, cautioned against prioritizing fiscal discipline over supporting Canadians in the event of an economic crisis and advocated for greater accountability in how provinces spend federal funding for health care.
"We also need to remember that the economy is about people," Gould said. "It's not just numbers or points on a graph. It's about how do we make the economy work for people."
Carney may have his finger on a set of issues that matter to Canadians and that he can speak to with some authority. He may be framing a ballot question that the Liberals have some chance of winning. He may be right that the next Liberal leader needs to show change. But he will likely have to be more conversant in a wider range of concerns.
The departure of Justin Trudeau and the return of Donald Trump have effectively reset the political environment in Canada. And polls now suggest that with Carney as leader, the Liberals could even have a small lead over Poilievre's Conservatives.
That is a remarkable turn of events. But for now it is just an opportunity. It remains to be seen whether Carney can fully seize it.
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