P.E.I.'s post-pandemic job recovery remains strong, but volatile

The number of jobs on P.E.I. has grown by seven per cent in the last year, and that strong growth following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic is coming with a lot of change.

In the spring of 2020, about 15 per cent of the jobs on P.E.I. disappeared almost overnight because of transmission prevention measures — about 80 per cent of those jobs from the service sector.

From the beginning, the recovery was erratic, with both the number of jobs and the number of Islanders available for work showing an unusual volatility.

That volatility has continued through 2022, and picked up steam in the last few months.

For example, in 2019 the growth in jobs on P.E.I. was fairly steady. There was growth in eight of the 12 months, with no more than 800 jobs lost and no more than 1,600 gained in any one month. As of October, 2022 featured six months up and three down, but jobs losses have been as high as 3,800 a month and gains as much as 4,300.

Numbers for the participation rate — the proportion of the population already working or actively looking for work — have been similarly changeable. The rate was fairly steady leading up to the pandemic; in 2019 it ranged from 66.1 to 66.8 per cent. However, in 2022 the range has been from 63.6 to 67.2 per cent.

Those numbers suggest a workforce seeking change, particularly among young people.

Youth on the move

Islanders aged 15 to 24 are creating most of the volatility in the participation rate.

Youth participation in the workforce does tend to vary more than participation for those aged 25 to 54, or those 55 and over, but it has varied even more radically since the pandemic.

In 2019, participation varied from 69.4 to 72.2 per cent. In 2022, the rate peaked at 74.1 per cent in January before crashing to 54.5 per cent in September, and then recovering to 64.7 per cent in October.

Volatility is largely unchanged for the other two age groups.

Some sectors shrinking

An analysis of the different industrial sectors suggests what kinds of change Island workers might be seeking.

The P.E.I. economy has included an average of 85,000 jobs in 2022, which is a 7.3 per cent increase over 2019. But some industrial sectors have grown much more than that, while others have shrunk, leading to a redistribution of how Islanders are earning their paycheques.

For example, 5.4 per cent of Islanders were working in agriculture in 2019. This year it's only 4.0 per cent.

Professional, scientific and technical services moved in the other direction. In 2019 those Islanders made up 4.5 per cent of workers, and now they amount to 5.8 per cent.

One of the hardest-hit sectors in the pandemic, hospitality, is a long way from recovering. It accounted for 7.6 per cent of workers in 2019, compared to a mere 6.1 per cent to date in 2022.

Manufacturing jobs are up, though, from 8.5 to 9.5 per cent of all positions.

The transportation and warehousing category has been particularly hard hit. The number of workers in that sector has been almost halved, with the share of the P.E.I. workforce falling from 3.6 to 1.9 per cent.

One of the biggest changes came from one of the Island's largest sectors, the civil service. Counting all three levels of government, it grew from 9.8 per cent of workers in 2019 to 12.2 per cent this year. That sector alone added 2,600 workers, an increase of 33 per cent.

Do you have a university degree?

What these trends have in common is a move toward jobs that require more education.

This, too, is reflected in data gathered by Statistics Canada. In 2019, a total of 18.2 per cent of jobs on the Island were held by someone with a university degree. By 2022, that had risen to 25.4 per cent.

If the move toward higher education has been motivated by a desire to make more money, it is not yet bearing fruit.

Islanders are still earning the lowest wages in Canada, and have actually lost a little ground since 2019.

That year, the average Islander was earning 15.7 per cent less than the average Canadian. The equivalent gap in 2022 is 16.8 per cent.

In the coming weeks, CBC P.E.I. will take a closer look at some of these trends.