Recreational chinook salmon fishing 'unlikely' this year on Yukon River

The Yukon River Panel has released its pre-season forecasts for the chinook and chum salmon runs — and so far, the runs are expected to be near average, at least for recent years.

The total estimated run size for chinook this year is expected to be around 74,000 fish. That's roughly in line with numbers over the last 10 years, according to Steve Smith of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. He's part of the Yukon River Panel.

"I mean there's definitely been a significant downward trend, in terms of historical run sizes. But in terms of more recent averages, yes it's looking not too bad," he said.

Chinook runs in the 1980s sometimes ranged from 150,000 to 175,000 fish.

Smith says if the forecast for this year bears out, it's unlikely there will be any recreational or commercial fishing of Yukon River chinook this year.

"There will be opportunities in the First Nation fishery, but it's unlikely there will be opportunities beyond that. It's unlikely there'll be a public angling or commercial opportunities on chinook salmon," he said.

"Firstly, we want to make sure we get the spawning objective, and then beyond that the first priority is the First Nations fishery. And then after those needs are addressed, if you will, we consider public or commercial opportunities."

The Yukon River Panel is an advisory body formed by the governments of Canada and the U.S. to implement the Yukon River Salmon Agreement. It makes recommendations on the conservation and management of salmon that spawn in Canada.

Chinook in decline

Yukon River chinook runs have been in general decline in recent decades, and that's prompted restrictions on the fisheries.

Indigenous communities in Yukon and Alaska have also restricted their harvests in recent years — but there's been tension over how many fish are still harvested. In the past, some Yukon First Nations have blamed over-fishing in Alaska for reducing the number that reach spawning grounds in Yukon.

Last year, the number of chinook salmon that reached the Whitehorse fish ladder hit a 40-year low — just 282 fish.  That's compared to 690 in 2018 , and more than 1,200 in 2017.

The Yukon River Panel is estimating a chum salmon run this year of between 207,000 and 261,000 fish. Smith says that's a little lower than the 10-year average, but should still provide fishing opportunities.

"In terms of chum, we definitely anticipate there to be ample opportunities for, obviously, the First Nation fishery, but also the public angling and commercial opportunities," he said.

Smith said harvest levels still need to be worked out though, as the different stakeholder groups are still developing management plans for the year.