A snap election would give Higgs a PC Party in his own image

An early New Brunswick election would give Premier Blaine Higgs the opportunity to reshape the Progressive Conservative Party like never before.

The six dissident PC MLAs who hoped he'd retire had those hopes dashed by his announcement last Friday that he'll stay and run for a new mandate in October 2024 — if not before.

Ironically, their main function now may be as a pretext for Higgs to dissolve the legislature earlier than scheduled and end whatever influence they may still have.

The only date for an election "at this point," the premier said last week, is the one created by fixed-date election sections of provincial law — Oct. 21, 2024.

But that law also gives the lieutenant-governor the authority to heed any request for an early election, something Higgs wouldn't rule out if the six rebels make procedural mischief with his legislation.

"We all know the situation that exists within the legislature and within our government, so obviously that remains a big concern," Higgs said. 

We've heard rumours [Higgs is] preparing, that he wants an election now.— Liberal Leader Susan Holt

The six Tory rebels, who broke ranks in a vote on Policy 713 in June, told their caucus colleagues in an Aug. 10 email that they had "no intent to disrupt our government's legislative business."

The email obtained by CBC News warned, however, that if they felt the PC caucus's role wasn't being respected, "we will stand up for what we feel is right."

Whether they'd go as far as voting against Higgs in a confidence vote isn't clear. 

But the premier's comments about the uncertainty reinforce rumours that the PCs could hit the campaign trail within the next month.

"I'm getting many messages from New Brunswickers that 'he's going, he's going,'" Liberal Leader Susan Holt said last week.

"We've heard rumours he's preparing, that he wants an election now."

Another piece of evidence is feeding the speculation.

PC MLAs have been told that new party riding associations — required to reflect the redrawn boundaries of the province's 49 electoral constituencies — should be officially established by Sept. 30.

Those associations are the party entities that nominate election candidates.

But why would Higgs go early? 

Despite, or perhaps because of, the Policy 713 controversy, the premier's approval rating has inched up since the spring, as has satisfaction with the government.

In the Angus Reid Institute's quarterly survey of approval for Canadian premiers, Higgs's rating has improved from 25 per cent in March to 30 per cent this month.

More significantly, Narrative Research has had the PCs statistically tied with the opposition Liberals in voting intentions in three straight quarterly polls.

Because of how Liberal support is clustered in northern and francophone ridings, that tie could easily produce a majority PC win.

Perhaps just as tempting, pulling the trigger early would let Higgs accelerate his reshaping of the party.

Higgs inherited a caucus of PC MLAs with a range of opinions — "a diverse group," he would say, sometimes ruefully, when there was an outbreak of dissent.

Many of them had long histories in the party that put them at odds with some of his ideas and did not support him for leader.

Now the most rebellious are out of cabinet, replaced by firm loyalists, and at least some of the rebels have already said they won't run next time if Higgs is still leader.

For his part, the premier wouldn't say last week whether he'll sign their nomination papers if they did try to stay on the ballot.

"It remains to be seen where we go from there but I think it was pretty clear that several have made that decision," he said.

That will leave a more firmly pro-Higgs slate of candidates, whenever the election happens.

Unlike in 2018, when the vote produced a minority government, and 2020, when Higgs won his first majority, anyone who decides to run for the PCs next time will know exactly what to expect from him when he controls the agenda.

Should he win, a future caucus and cabinet would be more homogeneously Higgsian than ever before — a PC government created in his own image.