Keep your long johns on, says Environment Canada

The cold that's gripped the Canadian Prairies this week could stick around well into the New Year, Environment Canada predicts in its seasonal forecast.

Senior climatologist Dave Phillips told CBC's Information Radio Wednesday that Manitobans can look forward to a colder than normal winter from January through March.

Winter officially arrives on Sunday, but Western Canada has been shivering in temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal since last week.

Phillips predicted Manitobans won't be putting the long johns away for a while. "My gosh, when cold air arrives, usually you're in there for week after week," he said. "And we've seen it already and it may be really the preview of what winter is going to be like."

There might be the odd respite from below-normal temperatures, but those periods will be short-lived, he said.

"What we're seeing is no El Nino saviour here," Phillips said. "No Pacific breeze. Now … even in a colder than normal winter you will have some melting that goes on. I mean, hey, there's a better than a 50-50 chance that you're going to have a January thaw."

But at least it's a bright, dry cold, Phillips said. "Your saving grace is your great sunshine."

CBC meteorologist John Sauder said long-term seasonal forecasts involve analyzing upper atmospheric conditions, which can be hit and miss.

"Seasonal forecasts have a very low accuracy rate," he said.