Report details London Transit fleet needs as agency gears up service improvements

The London Transit Commission estimates it will need to acquire 170 new buses over the next decade to maintain its existing fleet, and purchase an additional 50 in just the next five years to meet planned service expansion targets.

The agency is set to ramp up major service changes that will see schedule and frequency improvements, old routes redrawn, and new routes added to underserved areas of the city between 2025 and 2029.

A report going before the London Transit Commission's (LTC) meeting on Wednesday estimates the cost of the 220 buses over the 10 years would clock in at around $244 million.

At least 170 of the buses would be acquired as part of LTC's routine bus replacement program, aimed at maintaining an average fleet age of six years. The commission expects to replace 17 buses every year, as it has the last several years.

The other 50 would be to meet growing service demands, growing the existing fleet by more than 20 per cent.

In June, commissioners approved a new five-year conventional service plan aimed at improving rider experience, expanding the network, and complementing the upcoming bus rapid transit (BRT) system.

Several routes will see service levels improved, and at least five new routes will come online, including route 22 in 2028, serving the Riverbend area, and route 23 in 2029, serving the White Oaks and Westminster Park areas.

Some existing routes will be extended, such as 37 Argyle Mall – Neptune Crescent, which serves industrial areas near Veterans Memorial Parkway. Others, like 4 Fanshawe College – White Oaks Mall, will be shortened.

Starting in 2028, route 4 will no longer run from downtown to Fanshawe — the argument being that students will be able to utilize BRT.

Fleet electrification 'a very long way off,' LTC chair says

At least 162 replacement buses would be standard buses, while eight would be articulated. Standard buses cost at least $872,000 each, while articulated buses cost at least $1.33 million each, the report says. 

All will be diesel, according to the report. LTC's current fleet includes 223 diesel and eight hybrid buses.

"In terms of electrification, that is a very long way off, but it's definitely something that we want to achieve. It's just not going to be something we're going to see in the next couple of years," said Stephanie Marentette, chair of the transit commission, on Sunday.

London Transit had anticipated buying 154 zero-emission electric buses by 2033, according to a business case presented to city council during multi-year budget talks. The business case, which sought funding for the transition to electrification, failed to garner support amid a steep annual tax levy.

"Just a little bit of a fly into the ointment there," said Marentette.

"We have to play with what we get… and if city council doesn't approve a business case for something, it's really, really challenging for us to then turn around and say, 'well, we're going to do it anyway,'" she said.

Marentette said she had no timeline for LTC's electric plans, but said it was still something the agency was aiming for.

"Right now, we're kind of stuck on the aspirational part of it."

The commission has budgeted $189 million for the 170 replacement buses, with $149 million from the city, $25.6 million via the federal gas tax, and $3.7 million from Ontario's gas tax. 

For the 50 new buses, $25.9 million is budgeted from the city, with $9.1 million through development charges, while $8.6 million is from senior levels of government.

A $31 million gap could be filled by the new Canadian Permanent Transit Fund, the report says, noting details about the federal fund are limited.

On Wednesday, commissioners will vote to submit the agency's 2025, $20 million capital budget to the city, and to submit the provisional estimates for 2026 to 2034.

Fifteen standard and two articulated buses will be ordered for next year. Two are due in early January, with the remaining 15 in March. 

Roughly $2.5 million is earmarked for maintenance at LTC's aging Highbury Avenue facility. The agency is looking to demolish and rebuild the facility at a cost of roughly $330 million over 10 years. 

Phase 1 of the project is expected to get federal approval to proceed this year, with work potentially beginning in late 2026 or early 2027, the report says.