Tight battle expected between high profile candidates in South Surrey-White Rock

During the 2017 byelection in South Surrey-White Rock, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was mobbed by hundreds of people demanding selfies when he made a series of appearances with Liberal Gordie Hogg. 

A month later, Hogg wrestled the seat away from the Tories.

Simon Fraser University political science professor Stewart Prest says Hogg's campaign got a boost from his party leader two years ago that likely won't be repeated in 2019.

Trudeau's popularity has taken a hit over the SNC-Lavalin controversy and images of him wearing blackface and brownface.

"We can be lulled into a sense of recency bias given that the Liberals did so well in the last election," he said. 

"Yet, when we look back a little further, we see that's just not the case."

Recent history

It didn't look like the Liberals had much of a chance in South Surrey-White Rock in 2015.

Candidate Joy Davies resigned after it was discovered that she had previously commented on Facebook in 2013 that marijuana reduces family violence and that growing it in a home poses no harm to children.

Judy Higginbotham was tapped as a last minute replacement to take on the Conservative's star candidate, former Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts.

With a tiny campaign budget, Higginbotham came within 1,500 votes of pulling off the upset.

When Watts vacated her seat in 2017 to run unsuccessfully for the B.C. Liberal leadership, the Liberals recruited Hogg, a longtime politician whose family is so connected to White Rock that a pavilion at Peace Arch Hospital is named after his father.

Hogg defeated Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay, a well-known candidate in her own right, who previously served as a federal cabinet minister, and both candidates are back for a rematch in 2019.

The issues

Voters are concerned about everything from climate change to gang violence to local train traffic, but Findlay says affordability seems to be the number one issue.

She says her party will cut the rate on taxable income under $47,630 from 15 to 13.75 per cent.

"It is expensive to live in the Lower Mainland of B.C.," she said. "This measure will save the average single taxpayer $444 a year."

Hogg says the Liberals will make it a priority to build more affordable housing. "The cost of housing here is a big issue," he said.

"We were able to get some funding for the building of a rental building that will ensure that we will get lower rental rates."

Development has soared in the riding, causing the population to grow by nearly 10 per cent between 2011 and 2016 according to the Census.

NDP candidate Stephen Crozier and Green candidate Pixie Hobby both hope the changing demographics will benefit their parties, which haven't been a factor in past elections.

Crozier, who helped Darryl Walker get elected as White Rock's mayor, says the NDP plans to build 500,000 new homes over ten years.

"We are going to have affordable housing that is purposely built for people who live here," he said. "It's the biggest expense that a family ever has."

Hobby, an environmental lawyer who ran for the NDP in the 2015 election, says the windstorm that damaged the White Rock Pier last winter has voters thinking about climate change.

"There's just this general anxiety of what's going to happen next?" she said. "Why isn't the government doing something about this?"

People's Party of Canada candidate, local Realtor Joel Poulin, supports broad tax cuts.