New avalanche forecasting system aims to remove barriers to backcountry

Avalanche Canada has launched what it says is a more flexible avalanche forecast system that will help backcountry users get the most up-to-date information to plan safe trips.

The not-for-profit organization hopes the new model will remove barriers to entry for newer backcountry travellers and those heading into the mountains.

Avalanche Canada issues daily forecasts throughout the winter and into spring for much of the mountainous regions of Western Canada, rating regions according to five levels, from low to extreme danger.

Grant Helgeson, the organization's product manager, says the newly designed model will no longer have fixed regions or region names, allowing forecasters to group regions based on similar avalanche conditions. 

One of the challenges with the old system was applying one forecast to a region that had big differences within its boundaries, Helgeson said. The new system enables the organization to provide more accurate forecasts when weather cycles affect some areas but not others.

Users can expect to see fewer forecast regions if conditions are relatively consistent over large areas. If they are variable, there will be more forecast regions. 

"So, if all of the Sea-to-Sky all the way over to the Duffy and the Coquihalla are similar, you might just see one unified forecast for that area," Helgeson said. 

User-friendliness remains key to the system.

"It's just real simple," Helgeson said. "They can just zoom right into the map. They can get a feel for where they might want to go."

Other new features include a search bar on the home-page map to find specific areas and coloured regions for danger ratings, where users will now also be able to check park closures and avalanche incidents.

"I think it's actually a great product for the newer backcountry user first and foremost," said Helgeson, who believes the new update will help users navigate through the website faster.

In the future, he says, with more advanced modelling software, they will be able to predict avalanches slope-by-slope.

"But we're not quite there yet," he said.

Safety tips

An avalanche can occur anywhere that has steep enough terrain. Once the slope is larger than 10 metres x 10 metres, about the size of a tennis court, there could be enough snow on it to cause a dangerous avalanche. 

Some classic signs to look out for are substantial new snow, wind and rapid rises in temperatures. 

While warning signs that indicate which areas are more or less likely to produce avalanches are unlikely to exist at all trailheads, travellers are recommended to learn all the signs to be aware of avalanche terrain.

In B.C., the busiest months for avalanche risks are from December through March. 

In the last 10 years, Avalanche Canada recorded 104 avalanche fatalities in the country, of which 79 were reported in B.C.

Having the right gear is critical to avalanche safety. Avalanche Canada advises everyone travelling to risk-prone areas to carry an avalanche transceiver, a shovel and a probe. 

And it says one or two of the three isn't good enough. You need them all.