Windsor prof correctly predicts election outcomes in all 50 states — except nearby Michigan
CBC News | Posted: November 7, 2024 9:00 AM | Last Updated: November 7
David Bussiere accurately forecasted the outcomes of 49 of the 50 states
A University of Windsor professor scored 98 per cent on his predictions for the U.S. presidential election.
David Bussiere, with the Odette School of Business, correctly forecasted the outcomes of 49 of the 50 states.
The only one he didn't call, ironically, was neighbouring Michigan — which ended up being taken by Donald Trump's Republicans.
CBC has checked in with Bussiere and his political science class within the school's marketing department at various stages of the election.
He spoke with CBC Radio Windsor Morning host Amy Dodge on Wednesday, not long after the official results were still crystallizing.
Here's part of their conversation — starting with his only incorrect prediction of Michigan remaining blue with a "slight win" for the Democratic Party.
Are you surprised by the results?
I'm not surprised by the results. I mean, it's an awesome position where I actually forecast these results, not what I wanted, but what I see, what I saw coming. I actually forecast as it sits right now, 49 out of 50 states. I could be right with Michigan or I could be wrong with Michigan.
Looking at the Michigan numbers … What did you forecast?
I forecast a slight win for the Democrats. Throughout this process, I've tried to stay impartial, right?
I looked at every state. I looked at the facts, I looked at the polls and so forth. And the irony is the one state is the one that is so close to me. And maybe my problem was it's so close to me.
WATCH | The marketing of politics: UWindsor class follows U.S. election closely:
That's what I was wondering, if it's too close for you to make an unbiased or educated [prediction]?
If I had to excuse myself or slap myself on the hand it would be for that reason that I added in me into the equation.
Whereas every other state — I know nothing about Omaha. I looked at the data only … that's my best guess. But 49 out of 50. That's not bad.
It's been a joy all the way through because it's like talking to somebody who's got a favourite sports team.
It … was my Super Bowl night, honestly. That's how I addressed it. It was fun for me. I was actually anticipating that I may go to bed not knowing.
Around 10 p.m., I turned to my wife and I said, 'I think I know what's happening here.' Like, I saw enough evidence that I was fairly confident that Trump would win.
I think it comes down to — my gut feeling is — core variables. The economy. There's too many problems going on that they needed a change.
You do this every election. Is this the closest you've gotten?
No. Well, it matches. So over the three last U.S. presidential elections in total, I have missed four states.
I'm pretty good at this.
I'm really competitive, so I really try to be precise.
Last time Trump's first victory, I missed only Wisconsin. This time, I got Wisconsin.
Most people did not think that Wisconsin would go for Trump. I got it. Last election, I thought Trump would win, but I was wrong on two important states.
This time I missed one again.
What should the average person take away from this exercise?
If you are able to take a step back and look at data — not with what you want, but what is in the cards — you have a better ability to forecast what's going to happen.
I had many colleagues election day say, great PR, great media coverage, but you're wrong. But they didn't have a reason. And this is not putting them down. It was more many of them [being] that's not what I want, as opposed to that's not what I see in the data.
What did your students have to say?
I was online with many, many of them … [going] back and forth. The comments started out slow and then suddenly exploded as results came in.
People who were gleeful because their forecasts were correct and people who were not believing the results because they were so wrong. Which is fine. We can work through that.
Many people think now that the election is done, so is your class done? No, now there's a second...There's fun — part two.
What happened in Pennsylvania? What happened in Georgia? How come Arizona went this way, and so forth? What were the variables? We talk about reproductive rights. What happened to that?
All of this emotion did not give Kamala Harris a win, so we will dissect where did it and where did it not.
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