Yahya Sinwar's death offers exits from the war, but will Israel take them?
Chris Brown | CBC News | Posted: October 17, 2024 9:15 PM | Last Updated: October 18
Escalating conflict in Middle East is 'deeper than one person,' expert says
In the end, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, who masterminded the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and then spent more than a year evading one of the largest and most destructive manhunts in history, may finally have met his demise almost by fluke.
As part of a regular military patrol — rather than acting on specific intelligence — it appears a group of Israeli soldiers and tank crew members opened fire on three suspected militants in a building in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Wednesday.
It was only after they removed the rubble that they discovered the body of what appeared to be the world's most wanted man, dead among the debris.
"A year ago he was victorious. Now he is eliminated. Where will you be in a year?" Amir Ohana, the Speaker of Israel's Knesset, wrote on X as the news broke Thursday afternoon.
He urged Sinwar's followers in Gaza to lay down their weapons, suggesting it's pointless for the group to continue with the armed struggle against Israel now that its leader is dead.
Sinwar, the Hamas military chief who spent 22 years in jail for killing two Israeli soldiers, meticulously planned and launched the Oct. 7 attacks that killed more than 1,200 in Israel and captured 251 hostages.
Many — likely most — Israelis saw Sinwar as evil incarnate.
WATCH | Sinwar killed in Gaza:
Inflection point
His long-sought death represents an inflection point not just for Hamas and Israel's war in Gaza but possibly also for the broader Palestinian struggle for self-determination.
Less clear is whether his demise will hasten the end of Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon or de-escalate the dangerous situation with Iran — or if the moment will pass with little noticeable difference.
Israeli analysts say the most immediate impact of Sinwar's killing is that it will close an open wound which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will get credit for.
"It is very momentous news," said Miri Eisin, a retired colonel with the Israel Defence Forces and intelligence specialist. "It's something that had to happen."
For Netanyahu to be able to say Sinwar caused Oct. 7 attacks and is now dead, "for him, is a win," she told CBC News.
Netanyahu's first comments after Sinwar's death appeared to suggest that, at least in Gaza, there will be no immediate change in tactics.
More than 42,000 people in the Palestinian territory have been killed by Israeli attacks over the past year — with a further 76,000 injured, more than a million and a half people displaced and most of the buildings and other structures razed to the ground.
"Evil suffered a heavy blow today," said Netanyahu. "But our task is not complete. We will continue full force until all your loved ones, our loved ones, are home."
Hamas is believed to still be holding 101 Israelis captive in Gaza, although many are no longer believed to be alive.
For months, talks mediated by Qatar tried and failed to find an elusive formula to stop the fighting, free the hostages and release thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
While publicly, the United States blamed Sinwar and Hamas for blocking a deal, many Israelis, and especially the families of hostages, have said they believe Netanyahu is also to blame for adding extra conditions at the last minute.
Even before the DNA results had come back with incontrovertible proof that the corpse in the debris was Sinwar's, the families of hostages in Gaza were urging Netanyahu to "leverage" his death into a deal to secure their release.
"The elimination of Sinwar is an important milestone on the way to the real victory, which will only be achieved with the return of the 101 abductees," a statement from a group of those families said.
But whether freeing the remaining hostages or exchanging them for Palestinian prisoners has been made any easier by killing Sinwar is debatable.
"I'm pessimistic," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer in security studies at Kings College London.
"Who are you going to negotiate with if there is no central command within [the Hamas] network to negotiate?" he told BBC News.
Beyond the fate of the hostages in Gaza, Netanyahu's statement Wednesday also touched on the other wars raging on and around Israel's borders.
"In Gaza, Beirut and the Middle East, light is prevailing over darkness," he said.
In recent weeks, Israel has assassinated most of Hezbollah's top leadership, critically weakening the organization in Lebanon. A potential aerial strike against Iran could also land a harsh blow against Israel's most powerful nemesis.
But despite Netanyahu's vision for a re-imagined Middle East, Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, says he doubts Sinwar's death will enable Netanyahu to make it happen.
"The key question still remains whether Netanyahu is ready and willing to bring this to a close not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and against Iran," he told BBC News.
Other Middle East experts caution about attaching too much significance to the death of a single leader, however great their importance.
Hassan Barari, a professor of international relations at Qatar University, also says he believes it's extremely unlikely Hamas will just give up or turn over the remaining hostages because its leader has been killed.
"The conflict is… deeper than one person. It's about people's struggle for self-determination," he said.
In just a few weeks, Israel has succeeded in eliminating almost every senior member of Hezbollah, and yet the group continues to put up intense resistance to Israel's ground incursions into southern Lebanon and fires hundreds of rockets daily at Israeli communities.
Even as the news of Sinwar's death was breaking, Israel's military announced the death of five of its soldiers from the Golani Brigade, which is spearheading the combat operations in southern Lebanon.
In Gaza, a videographer working for CBC News found few people who felt Sinwar's death would slow Israel's attacks or lead to an improvement in their lives in any way.
"This is not the first [death] in the Palestinian revolution and resistance," said Thabet Al-Amur, a writer and political analyst in Khan Younis.
"Big and small leaders were killed in Palestine's journey for revolution."
While Hamas has ruled Gaza with an iron fist since 2005, there have been increasing indications of dissent and eroding support over the past year.
Still, as word of Sinwar's death spread Thursday, the only condemnation was for Israel.
Gaza "is in shambles, it's not suitable for living or being in or anything," said Mohammed Qaasim, 33.
He said the Israelis "will not stop — not for a head or two, or if the whole Palestinian population dies."