Regina and Saskatoon seats to watch in the 2024 provincial election

Adam Hunter | CBC | Posted: October 14, 2024 10:12 PM | Last Updated: October 15

Scott Moe and Carla Beck release platforms in Saskatoon as they focus on solidifying vote in the city

Image | Saskatchewan Legislative Building

Caption: The Saskatchewan Legislature will have 61 MLAs sworn in November. The race to fill these seats is on, and the Saskatchewan Party and NDP have focused on a few communities where close contests are expected. (Adam Hunter/CBC)

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Saskatchewan voters can cast their ballot for the Oct. 28 election in person beginning on Oct. 22, and with the campaign heating up there are several constituencies of interest.

The Saskatchewan Party cruised to victory in 2020, winning 48 of 61 seats. Many of those wins were by wide margins. Overall, the party took 61 per cent of the vote to the Saskatchewan NDP's 31 per cent. The NDP won both northern seats, six in Saskatoon and five in Regina. The rest of the map belonged to the governing party.

The 2024 vote looks different in a few key areas.

First, constituencies have been redistributed, leading to a tweaked electoral map. Second, there are some new names for those ridings.

Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck have been travelling around the province over the past month but have narrowed their focus to a few communities where the vote is expected to be close.

Both Moe and Beck announced their election platform in Saskatoon. Beck kicked off her campaign in Regina before hitting Highway 11 to Saskatoon. Moe launched his campaign in Saskatoon and then headed south to Regina.

Polls and redistribution suggest there could be some tighter races in the two cities. Here are some races to watch on election night, in no particular order. We are including how the vote would have broken down in 2024 under the new redistribution.

Regina

Heading into the vote, the NDP holds seven of the 12 city seats. All seven incumbents are running for re-election. Changes to the map affect Regina Mount Royal most notably as the former Regina Rosemont has tripled in size. The redistribution of 2023 votes moves the NDP margin from 1,580 votes down to 429.

Regina Northeast

Candidates: SP: Rahul Singh, NDP: Jacqueline Roy, Green Party: Anthony Thomas Majore
Incumbent: None (previously held by SP)
2020 Margin: 450 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: 895 votes (previously held by SP)

Storyline: The NDP held this seat for the better part of 40 years. The Saskatchewan Party broke through in this constituency in 2011. It flipped back to the NDP through a byelection in 2018. In 2020, candidate Gary Grewal won it for the Sask. Party. Grewal is not seeking re-election. The Sask. Party's candidate, Rahul Singh, and the NDP's Jacqueline Roy are newcomers to politics. Roy is a former provincial councillor with the Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation. If the NDP are going to make gains in the cities, they will have to flip seats like Northeast.

Image | Sask-Elxn-Sask-Party 20241008

Caption: Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe announced his party's election platform in Saskatoon. (Heywood Yu/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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Regina Pasqua

Candidates: SP: Muhamad Fiaz, NDP: Bhajan Brar, Green Party: Ekaterina Cabylis, PC: Justin Parnell, Buffalo Party: Shannon Chapple
Incumbent: Fiaz
2020 Margin: 256 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: 45 votes

Storyline: One of the closest votes in 2020 got closer with redistribution. The Sask. Party's Muhamad Fiaz has won the last two elections by fewer than 300 votes. The new map cut the size of Regina Pasqua by about one-third. The 2024 vote is a rematch between Fiaz and the NDP's Bhajan Brar. The map changes illustrate Pasqua could be one of the most vulnerable seats for the Sask. Party.

Image | Sask Elxn 20241001

Caption: Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck launched her campaign in Regina. (Heywood Yu/The Canadian Press)

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Regina University

Candidates: SP: Gene Makowsky, NDP: Sally Housser, Green Party: Cedar Park, PC: Corie Rempel
Incumbent: Aleana Young*
2020 Margin: 342 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: Flips to SP with 799 votes.

Storyline: This is where it can get confusing. The Regina University name remains but the boundaries have been changed significantly. The incumbent, Aleana Young, is running in the new Regina South Albert, which encompasses some of the old Regina University and Regina Pasqua. The Sask. Party's Gene Makowsky is technically an incumbent but his seat, Regina Gardiner Park, was dissolved into four other constituencies. Makowsky has won comfortably in the last two votes. Sally Housser, the NDP candidate, is no stranger to Sakatchewan politics and political campaigns. Numbers might not suggest a close race but this would be one to watch.

Others to watch: Regina Rochdale — this riding has shrunk in size and the margin of the Sask. Party victory in redistribution is smaller as well.

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Saskatoon

Moe and Beck have spent significant time in Saskatoon with seats seemingly in play. In the city, the Sask. Party has three MLAs not seeking re-election; the NDP has one. The redistribution has affected Saskatoon Stonebridge the most, with the new riding moving to a city seat. Saskatoon Southeast and Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis (formerly Northwest) will have a new member for the first time in 21 and 13 years respectively, with Don Morgan and Gord Wyant not seeking re-election. Redistribution of 2023 votes flips the Saskatoon Riversdale seat to the NDP and Saskatoon Eastview to the Sask. Party.

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Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood

Candidates: SP: Lisa Lambert, NDP: Keith Jorgenson, Green Party: Morgan McAdam
Incumbent: Lisa Lambert
2020 Margin: 259 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: 214 votes

Storyline: This was the second-closest race in Saskatoon in 2020. Redistribution has been minimal. Lisa Lambert is one of five Saskatoon incumbents for the Sask. Party. The seat is stuck between three held by the NDP (University, Eastview and Nutana) and Saskatoon Southeast. Lambert, first elected in 2016, is one of two incumbent Saskatoon Sask. Party candidates who have not spent time in cabinet (David Buckingham is the other).

Image | Sask-Elxn-Sask-Party 20241012

Caption: Scott Moe, left, shakes hands with Lisa Lambert, his party's candidate for Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood, at an event in Saskatoon where he released the Saskatchewan Party’s election platform on Oct.12. (Liam Richards/The Canadian Press)

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Saskatoon Riversdale

Candidates: SP: Olu Fakoyejo, NDP: Kim Breckner, Green Party: Naomi Hunter (Leader)
Incumbent: None (previously held by SP)
2020 Margin: 81 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: 85 votes (flips to NDP)

Storyline: Considered one of the safest seats for the NDP historically, Marv Friesen and the Saskatchewan Party pulled off the upset by 81 votes in 2020. Friesen is not up for re-election. The redistribution suggests a narrow win for the NDP in the seat once held by former premier Roy Romanow. Adding a wrinkle to the race, Green Party Leader Naomi Hunter is on the ballot in Riversdale.

Image | Sask-Elxn-NDP 20241011

Caption: Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck discusses her party platform during a media event where she released her full platform in Saskatoon on Friday, October 11. (Liam Richards/The Canadian Press)

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Saskatoon Stonebridge

Candidates: SP: Bronwyn Eyre, NDP: Darcy Warrington, Green Party: Cheryl Mazil, Progress Party: Jahangir Valiani
Incumbent: Bronwyn Eyre
2020 Margin: 4,501 votes
2024 Margin with redistribution: 67 votes

Storyline: The map dramatically changed with the redistribution in this seat: it shrank in size by more than 90 per cent. Having included the region south of the city, it now resides within the city limits. The result is what was an easy win for Bronwyn Eyre and the Sask. Party in 2020 looks a lot closer on paper.

Others to watch: Saskatoon University-Sutherland. This is a newly named and tweaked constituency without the incumbent running.

LISTEN | CBC's political panel discusses this biggest campaign storylines over the past week:

Media Video | Morning Edition political panel discusses Weekes's week of making waves in Sask. campaign

Caption: His role as Speaker of the Saskatchewan Legislature will be over soon. But before he retires, Randy Weekes continues to root around in the Saskatchewan Party's closet for skeletons. The Morning Edition political panel, hosted by Stefani Langenegger, looks at that and more stories from the past week. Adam Hunter covers politics for CBC Saskatchewan. Murray Mandryk writes a political column in the Regina Leader Post/Saskatoon Star Phoenix.

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