Only the U.S. can stop an all-out war in the Middle East, says Iran analyst
Sheena Goodyear | CBC Radio | Posted: October 1, 2024 10:24 PM | Last Updated: October 1
‘We're now on the brink of a disaster,’ says Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group
As violence ramps up between Israel and its foes in the Middle East, one expert says the U.S. is the only country with the leverage to stop this from escalating into an all-out war.
Ali Vaez is the Iran project director with the International Crisis Group, a Washington, D.C., think-tank with a stated mission of preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
Iran on Tuesday fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, in retaliation to Israeli attacks in Lebanon that displaced a million people and killed more than 1,000, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan.
Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel throughout its war in Gaza. Vaez says it was always inevitable that if the Israel-Hamas war continued unabated, the conflict would eventually spill over into other parts of the Middle East.
"But I'm afraid nobody had enough diplomatic initiative or courage to try to stop it. And, unfortunately, we're now on the brink of a disaster," he said.
Vaez spoke to As It Happens host Nil Köksal. Here is a part of their conversation.
What do you think Iran's goal was here?
Iranians had reached that stage, I think, after suffering multiple setbacks in the past few weeks … and it was afraid that it would signal weakness to Israel that would only invite Israel to increase the pressure on Iran and its allies in the region, and might eventually even come after Iran directly.
Iran's president posted on social media just a few hours before the conversation we're having, writing, "This is just part of our capability. Do not get into a confrontation with Iran." Is this going to deter further hostilities or just escalate things further, provoke more?
I think it's going to be the latter. I'm afraid Israel is certainly going to respond, and it's going to respond in a way that would be definitely harsher than what it did in April, which was a pinpoint attack against a missile defence battery in the middle of Iran.
This time, Israel is probably going to target … the Revolutionary Guard's facilities or critical infrastructure, if not potentially even the Iranian nuclear facilities. And from that point on, we would be in a back-and-forth that is very likely to result in an all-out regional conflagration.
WATCH | Israelis emerge from shelters:
Is there any going back? Any way to turn it around?
There is only one way that this could be unplugged at this moment, and that is for the United States, which is the only party that has leverage over Israel, to hold Israel back.
There is a deal already on the table for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. There is a deal on the table for Hezbollah forces being pushed back from the Israeli border. It might not be the total victory that Israel had in mind, but it puts Israel in a much more safe and secure position than continuing with this gamble of escalating tensions further with Iran.
Let's just imagine some of the possible scenarios. If the Revolutionary Guard's facilities are hit, they are certainly going to hit back. And at some point in this ping-pong of missiles and rockets and bombs, there will be Israeli casualties. And at that moment, of course, Israel would have to respond harder, and we would be in a fully fledged conflict between Iran and Israel.
There are 700,000 Americans who live in Israel, and the U.S. is committed to Israel's defence. And if that results in American casualties and fatalities, just a few weeks prior to the presidential elections in the U.S., President [Joe] Biden would have no choice other than basically getting in the way and entering into this conflict to bloody Iran's nose.
In a scenario like that, why not also take out Iran's nuclear facilities? Go all the way and, as it's often said in Washington, finish the job. But the problem is that would very likely push Iran to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, kick out the UN inspectors and then decide to pursue nuclear weapons.
So there is no way if this continues, that it would end in anything but grief for all sides.
How much of a factor [is the U.S. presidential] election?
It is a huge factor.
In the run up to the elections, if the region is even in more chaos, if there are American casualties, this is going to look very bad on Democrats.
None of this was happening at this scale under president [Donald] Trump, who would then portray himself not as the president of chaos, but as the strongman who can bring this situation under control. And of course, with Trump back in office, Netanyahu would have much more manoeuvring space. So this might be part of the calculus.
WATCH | Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly on Middle East conflict:
[Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu, as you likely heard, also [said] yesterday that regime change in Iran is coming and sooner than people think. He was speaking directly to the Iranian people, telling them Israel stands with them. What did you make of that statement? How is that being received?
It is very clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to exploit the widespread domestic discontent that exists in Iran against the Islamic Republic. There are a lot of people who would be happy to see the regime gone.
But ... also, Iran is one of the most ancient nations in the world, and it is also one of the most nationalistic nations in the world. And if the country is attacked on its own soil, there would be a rallying-around-the-flag effect.
When you speak to contacts, friends, family, if you have them, in Iran … what are they saying to you? How do they see it?
It's very hard to generalize the sentiments of a nation of almost 90 million. But obviously, you know, there are a lot of people who are terrified of the prospects of conflict. The Iranian people are sick and tired of living in a constant state of crises, and a lot of people just want a normal life. They want peace and prosperity.
And they've also seen what happened in Gaza, what has now happened in Lebanon, in a very short period of time.
At the same time, they're also being pressured from a repressive regime from the top, and from the United States from the outside, through sanctions and pressure. It's a terrible situation to be in.
None of these problems have military solutions. The U.S. has been able to bring about regime change to the east of Iran in Afghanistan, and to the west of Iran in Iraq, and both of those experiences ended up in grief for both nations and for the United States.
So this perception that might will make right — again, on all sides — I think is misguided, and it's only going to result in further human tragedy.