Junos 2024 predictions: who will win?
Holly Gordon, Melody Lau, Kelsey Adams, Robert Rowat, Natalie Harmsen | CBC Music | Posted: March 19, 2024 10:00 AM | Last Updated: March 19
We look at the nominees for group, album and contemporary R&B recording of the year, and more
It's nearly time for the 53rd Juno Awards on March 24 in Halifax, and in preparation we've been breaking down this year's nominees, marvelling at the musicians who, surprisingly, have never won a Juno, and watching some gorgeous covers of Juno-winning songs.
But the real question on everyone's mind is: who's going to win?
To that end, we've chosen five categories that present fascinating showdowns — one pitting a category record holder against a relative newcomer; another giving us a competition between the two most-nominated artists — and given our best predictions for who will win this year.
Scroll down to see whether you agree, and share your predictions in the comments.
Group of the year
By Melody Lau
Five previous Juno Award winners battle it out for another trophy in the group of the year category. Here are this year's nominees:
- Arkells
- Loud Luxury
- Nickelback
- The Beaches
- Walk Off the Earth
Four of this year's nominees have already won this exact award in the past: Loud Luxury (2020), Walk Off the Earth (2016), Nickelback (2004, 2004, 2006, 2009) and the band that holds the record for most wins in this category, Arkells (2012, 2015, 2019, 2021-2023). The lone newcomer, the Beaches, previously won breakthrough group of the year in 2018.
While streaming and sales account for 75 per cent of the initial screening process, to help narrow down the year's nominees, two of the finalists didn't release new projects in 2023: Nickelback enjoyed a victory lap with a deluxe version of its 2022 Juno-nominated album, Get Rollin', and Loud Luxury only released three new singles (the duo's most popular, the Bebe Rehxa-featured "If Only I," has more than 45 million streams on Spotify alone). Arkells put their stadium anthems aside for their most intimate album yet, Laundry Pile, and the Beaches bounced back after getting dropped by a major label with Blame My Ex, their most successful album to date. Pop group Walk Off the Earth is the overachiever of the bunch, putting out an album (Stand by You), volume three of their Romeo Eats collaboration, and a Christmas EP to boot.
Prediction: Of all the bands, the Beaches made the biggest leap this past year. The viral success of their single "Blame Brett" unlocked a new level of stardom for the Toronto rockers: Blink-182's Mark Hoppus sang along to the track on an Instagram live; they scored an opening slot for the Jonas Brothers; and "Blame Brett" earned the No. 2 spot on CBC Music's top 100 songs of 2023. The Beaches have even broken into the U.S.: they recently made their late-night TV debut on Jimmy Kimmel Live! and earlier this month, "Blame Brett" entered the top 50 on U.S. pop radio.
Album of the year
By Natalie Harmsen
A mix of previous Juno winners, past nominees and one newbie will compete for album of the year. The nominees are:
- Néo-Romance, Alexandra Stréliski
- 99 Nights, Charlotte Cardin
- Never Enough, Daniel Caesar
- Mirror, Lauren Spencer Smith
- Lord of the Flies & Birds & Bees, Talk
Talk, who is the only first-time nominee of the bunch, saw massive success with his debut album — his single "Run Away to Mars" has more than 100 million Spotify streams. The first of two voting rounds that narrow down the nominees for this category is based entirely on album sales and streams, so this works in Talk's favour. The album displays his powerful vocals through a series of songs with a sharp rock edge. However, due to his newer status and fast rise (he released his first single in 2021), it's more likely that he will clinch the Juno for breakthrough artist or alternative album of the year.
This leaves the door open for a past Juno nominee or winner, such as 2020 instrumental album of the year winner Stréliski. Néo-Romance landed on last year's Polaris Music Prize long list and features gorgeous, soaring compositions including "The First Kiss," which could potentially snag Stréliski a second win for instrumental album of the year, but is otherwise an outlier for this Juno, as no instrumental album has ever won.
Daniel Caesar, who won the 2018 Juno for R&B/soul recording of the year, has the most international recognition and is the only Grammy winner on the list, giving him a good shot at this win. Never Enough, which is also up for contemporary R&B recording of the year, landed on the Polaris Music Prize short list and featured noteworthy collaborations with Ty Dolla $ign and BadBadNotGood. Caesar's record contains his signature tender ballads such as "Always," which has racked up more than 200 million streams and is a strong contender for single of the year. However, it also has some more alternative songs including "Unstoppable" and "Shot My Baby," which put Never Enough in a more experimental lane that might not resonate with all jurors.
This makes pop the genre to beat, as two of the nominees, Charlotte Cardin and Lauren Spencer Smith, both released catchy albums with deeply personal lyricism. The numbers work heavily in their favour, too: both of their records have amassed enormous numbers on streaming platforms, and feature uber-catchy singles: Spencer Smith's "Fingers Crossed" reached more than 400 million listens on Spotify, while Cardin's "Confetti" sits at more than 30 million. The last five album of the year winners — the Weeknd (twice), Shawn Mendes, Alessia Cara and Cardin, who won in 2022 — have all been pop releases. This could bode well for either artist, but Spencer Smith has yet to win her first Juno, while Cardin won four two years ago and has the most overall Juno wins out of anyone in the category.
Prediction: With a range of stunning ballads and glossy pop hits, and given Cardin's Juno history, 99 Nights will likely nab the award.
Pop album of the year
By Kelsey Adams
The nominees are:
- 99 Nights, Charlotte Cardin
- Mirror, Lauren Spencer Smith
- Saturn Return, Rêve
- Queen of Me, Shania Twain
- Lost in Translation, Valley
It's an interesting year for the pop album category, because all but one of the artists are nominated in it for the first time. Spencer Smith, Rêve, Valley and Shania Twain have all clinched their first nominations for pop album of the year, while Cardin returns to the category after winning it in 2022. The first round of voting is based on 50 per cent album sales and streams and 50 per cent adjudication, with the winner determined by a wider voting pool. With that in mind, when determining who may rise to the top, it's important to consider both commercial success and critical reception.
Cardin and Spencer Smith are also up for album of the year, and both released commercially successful contenders for either award. Cardin's sophomore album, 99 Nights, was certified gold and hit the No. 3 spot on the Billboard Canadian Albums chart. The followup to her Juno-sweeping album Phoenix, 99 Nights is an evocative collection of diaristic pop songs, filled with the lyrical complexity that the Montreal singer has never shied away from, and the signature rasp that sets her apart in the Canadian pop space. It was reviewed favourably and was featured on CBC Music and Complex Canada's lists of best albums of 2023.
Spencer Smith's Mirror was also certified gold, and is by far the most popular album on Spotify out of all five, with around 930 millions total streams. The B.C. singer is part of the Gen Z emotional pop moment spearheaded by the likes of Olivia Rodrigo and Billie Eilish, and Spencer Smith's powerhouse voice and affecting songwriting have garnered her hits like the previously mentioned "Fingers Crossed" and "Flowers" — but there's a sameness to the album's 15 tracks that make it feel stagnant.
Twain is the nominee with the most Juno cred, with 43 total nominations and 13 wins over the years. However, her albums have previously been placed in the country album category. Her latest album, Queen of Me, hit the No. 2 spot on the Billboard Canadian Albums chart and contains the most straightforward, pristine pop of the bunch, while still maintaining some of Twain's country swing on tracks like "Giddy Up."
Montreal's Rêve won her first Juno in 2023 for dance recording of the year for the now double platinum single "Ctrl + Alt + Dlt," and she definitely pulls from dance music, blending EDM, disco and house with pop. Saturn Return is an album full of strong singles ("Big Boom," "Whitney") but it lacks a bit of sonic cohesion. On Lost in Translation, Toronto band Valley is still making hooky pop with an indie edge (even though the band is now signed to major label Universal Music Canada). There are many high points but "Throwback Tears," with its blend of shimmery modern synth pop and a '90s boy band-style chorus, is a perfect encapsulation of Valley's winning formula.
Prediction: Although it was a strong year for Canadian pop music, Cardin is the one to beat: she's got the Juno Award track record in this category, competitive sales and streaming numbers, and wide critical acclaim that extends outside of Canada.
Contemporary R&B/soul recording of the year
By Robert Rowat
According to the eligibility criteria, which don't include sales for this category, the R&B/soul music nominated in this category "may include samples and elements of hip-hop, rap, dance and electronic music" and "production elements found in pop, euro-pop, country, rock, folk and alternative." True to that spirit, this year's nominees encompass a wide range:
- For the Better, Aqyila
- Never Enough, Daniel Caesar
- Heartbreak Hill, Jon Vinyl
- When it Blooms, Nonso Amadi
- Facets, Shay Lia
Daniel Caesar now has 11 Juno nominations and only one win, and Never Enough is this category's frontrunner in terms of both popularity and scale, comprising 18 tracks (bonus edition) and clocking in at over an hour. There are plenty of his trademark cuddly songs ("Always," "Cool"), but also some frankly disturbing ones ("Shot My Baby") and several that stray into dreamy art-pop territory ("Unstoppable," "Please do not Lean"), and the jury may be looking for something less esoteric.
Nominated for contemporary R&B/soul recording in 2021, Shay Lia is this category's outlier: Facets is a thoroughly accomplished collection that would be right at home among this year's nominees for dance recording of the year. Which is not to say there isn't an R&B/soul thread connecting these 10 songs — "On the Low" oozes funk, and "The Way" has a good dose of Sade in its smouldering sound — but overall, the project is too genre-adjacent to prevail. Jon Vinyl, previously nominated twice for traditional R&B/soul, makes his debut in this category with Heartbreak Hill (eight songs, 19 minutes). He leads the pack purely in terms of vocal ability ("Broken Hearts") and gifted us with one of 2023's best songs ("Numb"), but his artistry is more aligned with the values of traditional R&B/soul, and that's where he's destined to win his first Juno before long.
That narrows it down to two nominees. Sticking closer to the middle of the contemporary R&B/soul lane is Aqyila's For the Better, a concise, seven-song EP running around 19 minutes. She eschews extraneous interludes and filler tracks, and focuses on jazz-inflected bops ("We Keep On"), danceable jams ("Moving Like That") and displays of beguiling vocals ("Hello," "Oh!"). But if this three-time nominee is going to win a Juno this year, it'll likely be in the traditional R&B/soul category, where she's up for "Hello." That leaves Nonso Amadi's When it Blooms (15 songs, 49 minutes), the most deftly produced of the five nominees, with its hair-raising blend of R&B and Afrobeats. It's a mellow listen from beginning to end, with multiple standout songs, including "Kilimanjaro," an evocative collaboration with Beam; "Foreigner," with its nocturnal touches of saxophone; and the sophisticated, Majid Jordan-assisted "Different."
Prediction: First-time nominee Nonso Amadi's When it Blooms will win the Juno for its sumptuous sound and ingenious, progressive amalgam of styles.
Adult alternative album of the year
By Holly Gordon
A mix of Polaris alumni, one long-awaited comeback and a relative newcomer will compete for adult alternative album of the year. The nominees are:
- Powder Blue, Begonia
- Multitudes, Feist
- Are We Good, Hayden
- Motewolonuwok, Jeremy Dutcher
- Revolution, Shawnee Kish
This year's nominees — which are chosen without considering streaming, radio play or sales — are mostly heavy-hitters. Winnipeg artist Begonia, who was nominated in the same category in 2021, had a powerhouse release with Powder Blue: it was shortlisted for the 2023 Polaris Prize, and has racked up hundreds of thousands of streams on Spotify. At the centre of the album is Begonia's incredible voice, which easily stretches from ballad to pop anthem and back again. Feist, the second 2023 Polaris shortlister in this nominee group, also had a huge year with Multitudes, an album that gorgeously examines grief and love in a hopeful way. The album, originally launched as a live residency in 2021, has been streamed by millions of people and spurred many sold-out shows both before and after its release. Feist is also the most awarded artist, Juno-wise, in the group: she's been nominated 16 times, and won 11. Given how much Feist's album has resonated globally, it would be surprising for Powder Blue to win over Multitudes.
Hayden released his first album in eight years in 2023, making a welcome comeback. His self-deprecating wit and expertise in sad songs shine on Are We Good, where he also collaborates with Feist and the National's Matt Berninger (the jaunty-for-Hayden "On a Beach"). Hayden has never won a Juno (he nabbed his first nomination in 1999) and a win this year would be a nice bookend to a long absence — though up against collaborator Feist, we're not sure Are We Good will persevere. Shawnee Kish is the relative newcomer: she was nominated for contemporary Indigenous artist of the year in 2022 (the first year the category existed), and is again nominated for it this year. Her Revolution EP is a pop-rock exclamation, an album of self-discovery for the Mohawk musician that continues to show she's an artist to watch. Against such a big field, though, it's unlikely that she'll take home this Juno.
That leaves the fifth nominee, Jeremy Dutcher, whose sophomore album, Motewolonuwok, has done an excellent job keeping up with the success of the Tobique First Nation artist's 2018 debut album, Wolastoqiyik Lintuwakonawa — which won both the Juno for Indigenous music album of the year and the Polaris Music Prize. An expansion of his musical universe, Motewolonuwok joins the Wolastoqey language with Dutcher's first songs in English, and offers a more personal, collaborative project than Wolastoqiyik Lintuwakonawa — including an expanded orchestra led by Owen Pallett.
Prediction: The ambition of both Dutcher and Feist's albums vie for first place in this category, and it wouldn't be a surprise if either of them win. But given the category's judging criteria — to "extend the classic singer-songwriter tradition" — we think Dutcher's Motewolonuwok will ultimately prevail: its originality and expanded universe are undeniable.
Host Nelly Furtado is bringing the party to the 2024 Juno Awards on Sunday, March 24, at 8 p.m ET. Tune in on CBC-TV, CBC Gem, CBC Radio One, CBC Music and CBC Listen, and stream globally on cbcmusic.ca/junos.