Canada's intelligence agency is warning that extremists could "inspire and encourage" serious violence against the 2SLGBTQI+ community — a threat the Canadian Security Intelligence Service says almost certainly will continue over the coming year.

CSIS's comments come as provincial policies on gender-affirming surgeries and pronoun preferences are being hotly debated across the country.

"CSIS assesses that the violent threat posed by the anti-gender movement is almost certain to continue over the coming year and that violent actors may be inspired by the University of Waterloo attack to carry out their own extreme violence against the 2SLGBTQI+ community or against other targets they view as representing the gender ideology 'agenda,'" said CSIS spokesperson Eric Balsam in an email to CBC News.

A former University of Waterloo student accused of attacking a gender-studies class with a knife last summer — sending an associate professor and two students to hospital — now faces 11 terrorism charges.

Balsam said that while violent rhetoric does not always lead to violence, "the ecosystem of violent rhetoric within the anti-gender movement, compounded with other extreme worldviews, can lead to serious violence."

"CSIS assesses that exposure to groups and individuals espousing anti-gender extremist rhetoric could inspire and encourage serious violence against the 2SLGBTQI+ community, or against those who are viewed as supporters of pro-gender ideology policies and events," he said.

Balsam was commenting on a document drafted by the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC) and obtained by CBC News through an access to information request.

ITAC, made up of intelligence authorities, is set up to keep tabs on threat actors' intentions and capabilities and to review classified and open-source information to estimate the likelihood of a terrorist attack in Canada.

According to the document, the centre was monitoring the potential for an attack or violent assaults at Pride celebrations, parades and nightclubs across the country last summer. Sections of the document have been redacted.

"Trans and drag communities in Canada have been the target of several online threats and real-world intimidation tactics in recent months," says the document.

"Anti-2SLGBTQl+ narratives remain a common theme in violent rhetoric espoused by white nationalists, neo-Nazis, the Freedom Movement, and networks such as Diagolon and QAnon."

ITAC went on to say that those who embrace religiously-motivated violent extremism in Canada continue "to view members of the 2SLGBTQl community as desirable targets."

Alessandro Iachelli, executive director of Fierté Canada Pride, said the warnings are "disheartening" but not surprising. The group acts as the national association of Canadian Pride organizations.

"There is not a day that goes by that I don't open my computer screen or my television to see something that attacks our community," he said.

He said he fears Canada will see a targeted attack like the 2016 mass shooting at Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, which killed 49 people and wounded 53 more.

"If anybody thinks that that's not going to happen in Canada, they better wake up," he said.

Iachelli said he worries the recent introduction of provincial policies on gender-affirming care and preferred pronouns will only heighten the risk for 2SLGBTQI+ people.

"It's on their plates, if anything happens to those people," said Iachelli.

CSIS did not comment specifically on any of the fallout from recent provincial policies or proposals over the last year.

The issue most recently reared its head in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith announced plans to implement a suite of policies affecting transgender and non-binary youth and adults.

Those policies include a ban on hormone therapy, such as the use of puberty blockers, for those aged 15 and younger and a requirement that parents give their consent before students aged 15 and under can change their names or pronouns at school.

The Alberta government's proposal also would forbid transgender women from competing in women's sports leagues. Smith said the government will work with leagues to set up co-ed or gender-neutral divisions for sports.

The Alberta government's proposals have ignited passionate debate.

Smith said she hopes to "de-politicize" the issue and focus on children's well-being. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has suggested Smith's proposals will aggravate mental health issues and suicidal ideation among young people struggling with gender dysphoria.

Advocates for transgender youth have threatened legal action, while the head of the Alberta-based Parents for Choice in Education group called the announcement "reasonable" but said the organization wants to see Smith go further.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also weighed in, accusing Trudeau and the media of demonizing Smith and parents.

CSIS Director David Vigneault raised his concerns about violence directed at the 2SLGBTQI+ community in a public address late last year. He said the agency is alarmed when rhetoric turns hateful.

"We're concerned about the sharp uptick in hate crimes across Canada, and the marked increase in terrorist and violent extremist threats and rhetoric from extremist actors, many of whom are consuming toxic media online, becoming radicalized, and may mobilize quickly to violence," Vigneault told an audience at the Canadian Museum for Human Rights in Winnipeg.

"We are concerned about hate-fuelled marches colliding with Pride celebrations."