With aging U.S. presidential hopefuls, how much do running mates matter to voters?
Rhianna Schmunk | CBC News | Posted: February 9, 2024 11:26 PM | Last Updated: July 3
Voters don't usually pay much attention to vice-presidents during campaigns, political scientists say
Over the course of Thursday's televised debate, incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump disagreed, unsurprisingly, on virtually every key issue of the campaign — from abortion, inflation and immigration to foreign affairs to climate change.
But the issue looming largest over the night was the candidates' age.
A halting performance from Biden, 81, had some panicking Democrats questioning whether he should be replaced on the ballot. Others said it was just a rough start — due, in part, to the president suffering a cold — getting an undue amount of attention in the press.
The issue has far overshadowed the performance by Trump, 78, despite the candidate having made a number of baseless claims throughout the event.
The debate solidified age and mental fitness as key concerns for voters in the U.S. presidential campaign, which, for the first time in history, is being led by two men who would be in their 80s by the time their term ends.
Political scientists say the aging slate might see voters pay more attention to vice-presidential candidates than they usually would, though they doubt the public will cast their vote based on who they might want to step up in the event their first choice for president couldn't do the job.
WATCH | Biden tries to shake concerns about age after debate:
"It's not really realistic to expect an American voter to say, 'I'm really concerned about Biden's mental acuity, but it's OK. I'm going to vote for him knowing that, if he has to step down, [Kamala] Harris is there,'" said Renan Levine, who teaches political science at the University of Toronto's Scarborough campus.
"I am very skeptical that, even with more attention [on age,] that the vice-president will loom large in many voters' minds."
Biden has been plagued by persistent questions around his mental and physical fitness for the last several years, concerns fuelled in part by verbal blunders and public stumbles.
Trump, a convicted felon who has faced a dizzying array of criminal indictments, has also faced questions around his mental acuity. He previously confused his primary rival Nikki Haley with Democrat and former House speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Asked about his age during Thursday's debate, he said he had "aced cognitive tests" and then bragged about his golf scores.
Polls have shown Americans are concerned about the mental and physical health of both men, but a survey for NBC News in February said they were particularly worried about Biden: Three-quarters of respondents, including half of Democrats, expressed their concern with his overall fitness.
If a president were ever unable to perform their duties as president, it would be their vice-president's constitutional duty to step into the role. In a race where both candidates are as old as they are, Levine said, it would be reasonable to think a vice-president might have a higher likelihood of being called up.
But the majority of U.S. voters typically don't decide their vote based on the vice-presidential candidate, even in a race where they might become more.
"Most Americans, we have to remember, especially in this moment, vote for the candidate of the party that they usually or habitually vote for," said Levine.
"It's not like people go, 'Oh, well, who's the president? Eh, don't love him. Then who's the vice-president?'"
Democrats have pointed to Harris, 59, as the next logical successor to Biden. Chad Griffin, a member of the campaign's national finance committee, said the White House was fortunate to have a vice-president that is "tough as nails" — though she's a frequent target for Republicans, who say she's waiting in the wings in case Biden isn't able to complete a second term.
"Vote Joe Biden today, get Kamala Harris tomorrow," read one advertisement from Trump's campaign.
Trump has said he's picked a running mate, though he hasn't announced who.
WATCH | Harris decries special counsel report:
Paul Quirk, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, said the question becomes whether the presidential candidates' age is a big enough issue to push voters to pay more attention to the second-in-command.
"Does the vice-presidential candidate matter when he or she is much more likely than usual to become president? This is a new circumstance," said Quirk.
Vice-presidents walking fine line
In recent campaigns, vice-presidents are typically used to rally the party's voter base and shore up support for the presidential candidate. Harris and the Republican nominee's running mate will each have to walk a fine line of standing behind their respective potential commander-in-chief while making plain their own ability to serve.
"That's going to be the delicate balance that they're going to need to demonstrate throughout the rest of this year," said political science professor Beth Fischer, referring to the Biden-Harris strategy.
That's a message ambitious candidates already know how to deliver, Quirk noted.
"They would be emphatically expressing confidence that the presidential candidate will serve out the term while declaring that they are prepared if, somehow, he doesn't," he said.
"But that's what they always do."