El Niño being felt in Thunder Bay as January ends with possible record-breaking temperatures
Olivia Levesque | CBC News | Posted: January 31, 2024 6:33 PM | Last Updated: January 31
High of 6 C forecast Wednesday, which would break a record set in 1993
January is coming to a close and more unusual temperatures are in the forecast for Thunder Bay, Ont.
Environment Canada is expecting a high of 6 C Wednesday in the city that would break the record-high temperature on Jan. 31 set in 1993.
"Certainly El Niño continues to be a major player in the overall weather pattern, not just in the Thunder Bay area, but right across northwestern Ontario," explained Geoff Coulson, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declares the climate pattern El Niño when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean near the equator is 0.5 C warmer than usual.
"So on the heels of a very mild month of December, January again coming in somewhat milder than normal, the trend going forward El Niño expected to be an influence for our weather pattern right through into the spring and certainly the forecast for the next week to 10 days," said Coulson.
- Check out how Wednesday's warm temperature compares to normal trends with CBC's climate dashboard
According to Environment Canada, the average temperature for Thunder Bay in January was –9.9 C. That's about 5 C warmer than the long-term average.
As for snow, the agency is recording 31 centimetres of snowfall in the Thunder Bay area for the entire of January. Normally, the city and surrounding areas see just over 42 centimetres this time of year.
Environment Canada says moving forward, the active storm track will remain to the north of the Thunder Bay area, meaning it's not likely the region will see much snow in the next week to 10 days.
"There's already been some melting of the snow pack as well in some areas with these milder temperatures. Certainly when we talk about differences …we usually talk about a few degrees here and there warmer or colder than that long-term average," said Coulson.
"But looking at these values as we head into the weekend … These differences of 9 to 10 C are quite significant."
The good, the bad and the ugly of a mild winter
The unusual weather is having significant impacts on the region so far this winter.
The lack of snow has actually saved the City of Thunder Bay some money when it comes to snow removal, despite a number of snow events in the spring of 2023.
"So we are finalizing the 2023 budget variance now, but are currently projecting an approximate $1.4 million surplus in winter control that will go back to our reserve fund," said Ian Spoljarich, the city's road manager.
Savings on snow removal might seem like a silver lining for the season, but Spoljarich said that's not necessarily the case.
The recent warm temperatures have been causing issues for roadways as potholes have returned earlier than normal.
"The warmer temperatures create other issues with the water and freeze thaw cycles, creating more potholes potentially on the roadways that we normally see in the spring, but we're seeing in January and February now," Spoljarich said.
A lack of snow and cold have also been a cause for concern for local winter sport enthusiasts, and some events are at risk of melting down.
Organizers of the annual Sleeping Giant Loppet ski festival have put registration on hold until next week due to poor trail conditions. They said a decision will be made about the status of the event by Feb. 7.
The event at Sleeping Giant Provincial Park is scheduled for the beginning of March.
"Generations of parents, kids and grandparents love to participate. So, it's kind of an annual end of season ritual to go to the park and enjoy the fabulous trails at Sleeping Giant and to kind of wrap up the ski season and celebrate cross country skiing," said Peter Gallagher, the Loppet's co-ordinator.
If the event goes ahead in March, it would be the 45th annual Sleeping Giant Loppet.
"All I can do is count on the weather forecast and this time hope that it's wrong. But the next 10 days, there's no snow in the forecast and the temperatures are above zero," Gallagher said."I'm honestly not very confident that things are going to change enough for us to be able to hold the event this year."