From opinion polls to party faithful, Poilievre's Conservatives are riding high. But is it too soon?
John Paul Tasker | CBC News | Posted: September 10, 2023 8:00 AM | Last Updated: September 10, 2023
After a record-setting convention, Tory prospects seem bright — if it can keep the momentum
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre appears to be in the pole position with an enviable lead over the governing Liberals in most public opinion polls and he commands near-total loyalty from the Tory base.
The party's three-day policy convention, which ended Saturday, broke past attendance records with more than 2,500 delegates registered for the Quebec City love-in.
The party is flush with cash after eye-popping fundraising hauls in the first and second quarters of this year — funds that will allow the party brass to continue its expensive ad campaign touting Poilievre in this pre-writ period.
While the leader's lengthy keynote address on Friday seemed less punchy than the off-the-cuff stump speeches he delivers while on tour, it was as well received as red meat by the Liberal-hating crowd.
Blasting the supposed "snowflakes" in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet, who he says are cancel-culture acolytes, and lampooning Liberal talk of Canada as a "post-national" state, Poilievre showed why he's adored by the so-called "true blue" Conservatives that now dominate this party.
He mounted a defence of patriotism, channelling Tory disgust with the government's passport redesign that erased historic references like Canada's First World War victory in the battle of Vimy Ridge.
"Quebecers — and I'm saying this in English deliberately — do not apologize for their culture, language or history. They celebrate it. All Canadians should do the same," Poilievre said to some of the loudest applause of the night.
Poilievre's wife Ana delivered a heartfelt speech of her own, powerfully invoking the sacrifices their family is making to try and replace Trudeau.
They often have to leave their special needs daughter while on tour, she said. Valentina, who is almost five, has autism.
"We wouldn't be doing this if we didn't believe this was a necessary fight to take on for our children," she said, holding back tears as she referenced the government's perceived failures.
No change to nomination rules
Poilievre-friendly delegates also fended off a social conservative-led attempt to rewrite the party's constitution to empower local ridings to have the final say in candidate nominations.
It was a policy proposal borne out of opposition to Arpan Khanna, a more moderate candidate parachuted into the Oxford, Ont., riding for a recent federal byelection. A local social conservative wanted to be the candidate.
The constitutional amendment defeat didn't go over well with anti-abortion activists like Alissa Golob, the co-founder of the social conservative advocacy group RightNow.
"There's a lot of Ottawa telling members what we should or shouldn't be thinking. It makes this whole convention a bit of a facade," she said in an interview.
"If we're not actually going to have a say for real, what's the point of coming here?"
WATCH: Pierre Poilievre deliver keynote address at Conservative policy convention
Golob wasn't happy about tactics used during a breakout room discussion to shut down debate on the nomination process. But even so, she still feels welcome in the "big blue tent" because so many MPs are what she calls "pro-life," and there's room for dissent on policy matters.
Sustain the momentum
While members are generally jubilant, some insiders who spoke to CBC News said they're quietly worried that the party may be peaking too soon.
Poll aggregator 338 Canada suggests the Tories have a nine-point lead nationwide over the Liberals. The question is whether the party can sustain that momentum in the face of greater scrutiny of the high-flying leader and his party from their opponents.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the convention, Transport Minister Pablo Rodriquez said Poilievre's address, which included promises to curb spending and push ahead with fossil fuel extraction, was "a traditional Republican, far-right speech," a reference to the conservative party in the U.S.
He said seniors could pay the price and dental care may be on the chopping block if Poilievre is elected.
The Liberals also pounced on newly adopted policies that include limits on transgender health care for kids and a stridently anti-vaccine mandate outlook — policies that could be an albatross for the party as it tries to woo swing voters in key ridings.
There will be more of these critiques.
"We're doing so well and that's when I get a little anxious," one senior insider who's worked for past Conservative leaders told CBC News.
"Who knows what can pop up in the months ahead to trip us up. The Liberals will say and do anything. We just have to be on guard."
WATCH | Poilievre attacks Trudeau's record, vows to balance budget
An election isn't imminent, with the next vote scheduled for 2025.
A federal campaign could come at any time in this minority Parliament but the NDP has signalled it hasn't soured on its alliance with the Liberals — and, in fact, they hope to squeeze more out of their parliamentary partnership.
"Poilievre's in the best position you can be in as a leader," said Rudy Husny, an ex-senior staffer for former prime minister Stephen Harper and a past leadership contender.
"The economy is not doing well. Inflation is a big problem. Most importantly, after eight years of Liberal government, people are tired," he said in an interview.
"But as a former strategist, I know you don't want to be too high, too early because — can you maintain it? If you drop two or three points, which is normal, people are going to be worried and they're going to say, 'Is this a trend?'" Husny said.
"I don't think it's the situation — Canadians are still discovering Pierre Poilievre and they like him — but it's a risk, peaking too early. Is he going to be able to keep those numbers? That's the other side of success," he said.
WATCH | Poilievre dressing down to boost appeal
Conservative Sen. Denise Batters helped orchestrate the caucus vote that ousted former leader Erin O'Toole and prompted a leadership election to replace him.
A long-time friend and proponent of Poilievre, Batters said the party future should remain bright because the leader is so laser-focused on issues that matter to Canadians.
With housing policy, for example, Batters said Poilievre is setting the political agenda and the Liberals have to play catch-up. He also captured the zeitgeist by being an early critic of the Bank of Canada's arguably slow response to inflation, she said.
While happy with how the Conservatives are faring in the polls, Batters said the party will act as if it's still running from behind.
"After eight years of Justin Trudeau and this tired, scandal-plagued Liberal government, Canadians are ready for change," Batters said in an interview with CBC News.
"And we, as Conservatives, are not going to rest on our laurels. We're going to fight very hard because Canadians want us to fight for them.
"We're not going to be complacent, we won't phone it in — that's just not how Pierre is."