'It's a dead heat': What you want to know about the Brexit vote
CBC News | Posted: June 22, 2016 11:44 PM | Last Updated: June 23, 2016
London-based political pollster Joe Twyman answered your questions via Facebook Live
In just a few hours, Britain will go to the polls to decide whether to stay in the European Union or make a Brexit — a British exit. But as the much-anticipated vote looms, many outside Britain still have questions about what the referendum means.
London-based political pollster Joe Twyman has been closely following the campaign with his research firm YouGov and tracking the electorate heading into Thursday's vote.
He answered some of the biggest questions surrounding the Brexit and took questions Wednesday as part of a live Q&A session on CBC News' Facebook page. Here are some answers to a few questions you wanted to know.
How close is the vote?
Twyman said it is an "extremely close" race a day out from the referendum. Polls have shifted over the past few weeks, with both the Remain and Leave camps leading at certain points. But anything could happen come Thursday.
"We know that over the last few polls, we've seen the gap between Leave and Remain narrow — sometimes one ahead, sometimes another — but now statistically speaking, it's a dead heat," he said.
"We expect that actually Remain could take it, but it's by no means outside the realms of possibility that Leave could manage it as well."
What happens if Remain wins by a small margin?
Polls suggest that Remain has the lead at the moment — but it's only a marginal lead. So where will the debate go if Britain does choose to stay, but only by a tiny amount?
"I think if it's close, it doesn't necessarily settle the argument forever, which is of course what [Prime Minister] David Cameron and many others hope for. But I don't think we're going to see that," Twyman said Wednesday.
Twyman suggests keeping an eye on the division between regions: while some rural areas will vote to leave, he said it's likely that cities like London, Britain's major economic centre, will choose to stay.
"It's a similar situation, of course, in Canada, with Quebec and Montreal and the distinction between the entire province there," he said.
What role will young people play?
People under 40 will be "hugely important" to the referendum's outcome, said Twyman. But that's only if they decide to get out and vote.
"There may be a proportion of young people who strongly want to stay in the EU, but don't actually get out to vote," he said. "Getting those people engaged is crucial."
Twyman said these younger voters are more likely to vote to Remain but said this group hasn't necessarily been targeted during the campaign.
"There's only one celebrity I can think of — Ellie Goulding — who's under the age of 30 and has had any kind of involvement with this campaign at all."
Has MP Jo Cox's murder shifted Brexit debate?
Labour MP Jo Cox, who was killed last week, was a vocal proponent of remaining in the European Union. During a memorial Wednesday, her husband told the crowd that his wife was worried about what would happen if Britain leaves.
Her death led to a three-day halt in campaigning but Twyman is skeptical about whether it has had an impact on how the electorate will vote.
"It's never possible to know for sure because, of course, sadly, what we don't have is the counterfactual — the geeky term we use for how things would have gone had that not occurred. And so we can't isolate that one event."
"We can say that that big move back toward the status quo actually occurred before the tragic events of last week and the narrowing of the polls actually preceded the events."
Why can't the Queen weigh in?
The Queen is head of state, so she's considered to be politically neutral. That means she's not able to offer her position on political issues like Brexit.
But that hasn't stopped some from speculating how the Queen would vote. "As an elderly woman who didn't study at university and lived in a council house, she is in a demographic more likely in which to leave … I doubt we'll ever really know for sure," Twyman said.
Though the Queen is neutral, Prince Charles, Prince William and Prince Harry don't fall under the same rule. But they have yet to comment.
"If I were the Remain campaign and I could have only chosen one person [to support my campaign], I would choose either William or Harry," Twyman said.