Nova Scotia can expect a milder winter this year, says Environment Canada
CBC News | Posted: December 2, 2015 9:52 PM | Last Updated: December 2, 2015
Environment Canada’s senior climatologist says winter will be warmer thanks to El Nino
After last winter's pounding, long-term forecasts for a mild winter will no doubt come as a welcome relief for many Nova Scotians.
David Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment Canada, says forecasts from Europe, United States, Canada all point to a warmer than usual winter thanks to a super El Nino.
"When we have a super El Nino we can get it right about 80 per cent of the time," Phillips told CBC Radio's Maritime Noon. "We're much more confident than when you have El Ninos and La Nina."
Phillips says milder winter weather is expected from coast to coast in December, January and February.
However, he acknowledges he made a similar prediction for Nova Scotia last fall. Anyone who poked their head out of doors last winter knows how wrong he was.
"Never have I been so wrong for so long for such a huge area of the country," he says.
The El Nino effect
El Nino is a weather anomaly in the Pacific Ocean that causes unusual weather conditions worldwide. But Canadians are always the last to see its effect, says Phillips.
A super El Nino has grown in intensity since March. In November, the water in the Pacific was more than 3 C warmer than usual; for an El Nino to be declared, the water only needs to be half a degree warmer than usual.
"This one is super because it's a huge amount of water — twice the size of Canada — and it also has intense warm waters, creating droughts and floods and fires," Phillips says.
It reaches North America in November and into the winter. At Canadian latitudes El Nino makes for warmer conditions, but in Arizona, Texas and Florida it means cooler and wetter conditions, says Phillips.
Forecasting difficulties
Meteorologists earn their keep in Nova Scotia as it's a challenging area to forecast the weather, he says.
The province has many different weather controls, such as topography, soil type and exposure to the oceans, which combine to make forecasting difficult.
"It's one of the hardest places in the world to forecast, certainly in Canada, because the weather can attack you from every direction," says Phillips.
"A one degree difference in temperature can make all the difference between whether you get buried in snow or you're dealing with freezing rain or the liquid stuff," he says.
Less shovelling this winter
Phillips says Environment Canada never bets on records, but compared to last winter's record-setting snowfalls, this winter should "feel tropical in comparison."
"With a wetter than normal winter, it could still be more snow than normal, but not as much as last year and it won't stay around as long," says Phillips.
"Nobody is suggesting that you're going to have a repeat of last year."