2024 Oscar predictions: Our final picks for who will win in every category

This awards season is (finally) winding down, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt is offering up his final predictions for the grand finale: the 96th Academy Awards, which will go down live on the night of March 10th. Prepare yourselves for a very big night for Oppenheimer, though there's definitely room for a few surprises as well.

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best International Feature
Best Animated Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score
Best Original Song 
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Short
Best Documentary Short
Best Live Action Short

Best Picture

The nominees:
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

What should win:
May December (but it wasn't even nominated!)

What will win:
Oppenheimer has all but already won.

Best Director

The nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet), Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Poor Things  (Yorgos Lanthimos), The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer) 

Who should win:
This is a pretty stellar lineup, but Justine Triet would have my vote.

Who will win:
Christopher Nolan, you're basically already a winner baby.

Best Actress

The nominees:
Annette Bening (NYAD), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Who should win:
Honestly, Gladstone, Stone or Hüller would all make exceptional winners.

Who's winning:
The only acting category not set in stone. Although it also kinda is, since "stone" will definitely be in the winner's name, we just don't know if it's Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone. They've essentially split the season, with Stone winning BAFTA, Gladstone winning SAG and each of them taking home a Golden Globe. A tough one, though we're going with Gladstone... who seemed to have the momentum just as voting was happening. 

Best Actor

The nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Who should win:
Paul Giamatti.

Who's winning:
For a minute there it seemed like a real race between Giamatti and Murphy, but this seems to clearly be Murphy's to lose going into the ceremony, giving yet another trophy to add to Oppenheimer's count.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees:
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (NYAD), Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Who should and absolutely will win:
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, the biggest lock of the night (and that's saying something given how many locks there are).

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction),  Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Who should win:
Charles Melton, but the Academy already failed us.

Who will win:
Robert Downey Jr. is all but assured.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet & Arthur Harari), The Holdovers (David Hemingson), Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer), May December (Samy Burch), Past Lives (Celine Song)

Who should win:
Samy Burch, though anyone but the Maestro boys would be wonderful winners.

Who will win:
Anatomy of a Fall, though The Holdovers is a spoiler.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who will be nominated:
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson), Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Poor Things (Tony McNamara), The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Who should win:
Greta and Noah, please! (Are we really gonna send Barbie home with just one Oscar for song?)

Who will win:
A three way race between American Fiction, Barbie and Oppenheimer, though Fiction definitely has the momentum right now and is what I'd put money on.

Best International Feature

The nominees:
Io Capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Teacher's Lounge (Germany), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

What should and will win:
The Zone of Interest.

Best Animated Feature

The nominees:
The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

What should win:
The Boy and the Heron.

What will win:
I'm thinking The Boy and the Heron will etch this out, but Spider-Verse is what most protagnosists seem to be going with. One of the few very tight races.

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees:
Bobi Wine: The People's President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

What will win:
20 Days in Mariupol.

Best Cinematography

The nominees:
El Conde (Edward Lachman), Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto), Maestro (Matthew Libatique), Oppenheimer (Hoyte Van Hoytema), Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

Who will win:
Oppenheimer.

Best Film Editing

The nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Senechal), The Holdovers (Kevin Tent), Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker), Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame), Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

Who will win:
Another one in the Oppenheimer bucket.

Best Production Design

The nominees:
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood), Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk), Napoleon (Chris Oddy),Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong), Poor Things (Shona Heath and James Price)

Who will in:
Poor Things probably has this, though if there's anywhere Barbie can get an Oscar besides song, it's here and...

Best Costume Design

The nominees:
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran), Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West), Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman), Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick), Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Who's winning:
Seems to be another Barbie v. Poor Things race, with the latter being the slight favourite.

Best Original Score

The nominees:
American Fiction (Laura Karpman), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams), Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson), Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson), Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

Who will win:
Robertson is obviously a sentimental favourite, but this is almost certainly going to be another one added to Oppenheimer's pile.

Best Original Song

The nominees:
American Symphony ("It Never Went Away"), Barbie ("I'm Just Ken"), Barbie ("What Was I Made For"), Flamin' Hot ("The Fire Inside"), Killers of the Flower Moon ("Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)")

Who will win:
Billie Eilish, astonishingly making the 22 year old a two-time Oscar winner and giving Barbie it's only certain win.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The nominees:
Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Who will win:
History suggests Maestro (the Oscars love them some aging prosthetics — see every other winner for the past 20 years), though Poor Things has a lot more momentum. I'd narrowly go with the latter.

Best Sound

The nominees:
The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Who will win:
The Zone of Interest's extraordinary sound design seems to be giving Oppenheimer a rare run for its money here (but still go with Oppenheimer if you want to play it safe).

Best Visual Effects

The nominees:
The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

Who will win:
The night's biggest toss up! My hope is that it goes to Godzilla Minus One (which did more with its visual effects on a $15 million budget than most Marvel movies do with $200 million), though both The Creator and Napoleon have very solid chances. Most precursors went to Oppenheimer and Poor Things, but neither are nominated here!

Best Animated Short

The nominees:
Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme, War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Who will win:
Probably War Is Over!, though Ninety-Five Senses is a significantly better film featuring some incredible voice work by the legendary Tim Blake Nelson.

Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, Nai Nai and Wai Po

Who will win:
A three way race between Book Banning, Repair Shop and Nai Nai. Our hope is that the latter prevails (the adorable short about the filmmaker's two grandmothers is the best of the lot) but we're guessing voters are more inclined to be very predictable and go with the more issue focused Book Banning.

Best Live Action Short

The nominees:
The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red White and Blue, The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar

Who will win:
Wes Anderson will finally become an Oscar winner with the only near-certain winner of the shorts categories: The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar.

Watch the 96th Academy Awards on March 10, 2024 at 7pm EST/4pm PST.