Predicting all the winners at the 2025 Oscars

Awards season is here, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt will be regularly updating his predictions for the main event: the 97th Academy Awards, which will go down on March 2, 2025. The nominations are out, but who will ultimately win? Here's Knegt's thoughts:

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best International Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Animated Feature
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound
Best Makeup & Hairstyling 
Best Visual Effects

Best Picture

The nominees:
Anora, The Brutalist,  A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

What should have been nominated:
Anora, Challengers, Flow, Hard Truths, I Saw The TV Glow, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Universal Language

What's going to win:
We appear headed for one of the most unpredictable best picture races in some time. Last year, we were pretty much certain of Oppenheimer's win many months in advance. This year, things feel drastically less clear, with four films all having legitimate paths to Oscar's biggest prize: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez are both hot off Golden Globe wins and dominated the Oscar nominations overall, arguably making them the two to beat. But watch out for both Anora and Conclave, since both The Brutalist and even more so Emilia Pérez have their haters.

Best Director

Best Director

The nominees:
Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), A Complete Unknown (James Mangold), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Who should have been nominated:
Anora (Sean Baker) , I Saw The TV Glow (Jane Schoenbrun), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Who's going to win:
For a while there it seemed down to two budding American auteurs both on their first nomination: Baker and Corbet. But the (in my opinion, very questionable) surge in support for Emilia Pérez sets the stage for a French twist here with Audiard.

Best Actress

The nominees:
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Who should have been nominated:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths),  Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Who's going to win:
This category was already a legendary battle just for the nomination, with Oscar voters leaving off the likes of Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie, among many others. (If it were up to me, I'd expand this category to 10 and then let every single nominee give a 10-minute speech.) As for the winner, Demi Moore seems to have locked this down after many months of it seeming like anybody's prize.

Best Actor

The nominees:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Who should have been nominated:
Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Justice Smith (I Saw The TV Glow), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

Who's going to win:
It seemed like Brody had a second Oscar in the bag for a while there, but Chalamet is surging for his portrayal of Bob Dylan (the Oscars love them a music biopic in acting categories). Fun fact: if Chalamet wins, he'll beat the record for the youngest winner ever in this category held by... Adrien Brody.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees:
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown),  Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Who should have been nominated:
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Joan Chen (Didi), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Who is going to win:
Almost certainly Saldaña at this point, with Grande a distant second.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Who should have been nominated:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Josh O'Connor (Challengers), Adam Pearson (A Different Man)

Who is going to win:
Culkin seems to have this in the bag, though he better watch out for Norton.
 

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks), Conclave (Peter Straughan), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard),Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

Who should be nominated:
I'm Still Here (Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), Queer (Justin Kuritzkes), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

Who is going to win: Peter Straughan's script for Conclave feels like the safest bet here.

Best International Feature

The nominees:
Emilia Pérez (France), Flow (Latvia) The Girl With The Needle (Denmark), I'm Still Here (Brazil), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

What's going to win: Unfortunately (for me, a person who hated this film!) Emilia Pérez seems pretty set here, although the surprise best picture nomination for I'm Still Here puts it in contention.

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees:
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Sugarcane

What's going to win: No Other Land winning would make a powerful statement, and would also be deeply deserved. Here's hoping Oscar voters decide to stand for something here.

Best Animated Feature

The nominees:
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

What's going to win: My heart says Flow, which I think has an excellent shot here. But my brain is wondering whether The Wild Robot will ultimately take this.

Best Editing

The nominees:
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

What's going to win: This is going to be one of the toughest calls of the night, but currently its another one I fear will go to Emilia Pérez.

Best Cinematography

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

What's going to win: Nickel Boys should be winning this, but it somehow wasn't even nominated. So in its absence, The Brutalist both should and will win this prize.

Best Production Design 

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

What's going to win: Wicked!

Best Costume Design

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

What's going to win: Wicked!

Best Original Score

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

What's going to win: Not Challengers, which is in my mind the biggest snub of the nominations. So I guess The Brutalist?

Best Original Song

The nominees:
"El Mal" (Emilia Perez), "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight), "Like a Bird" (Sing Sing), "Mi Camino" (Emilia Perez), "Never Too Late" (Elton John: Never Too Late)

What's going to win: One of the most boring lineups in this category's history, it seems likely one of the Emilia Perez songs win, and it will probably be "El Mal."

Best Sound 

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The WIld Robot

What's going to win: Dune: Part Two.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The nominees:
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

What's going to win: The Substance.

Best Visual Effects

The nominees:
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part II, KIngdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

What's going to win: Dune: Part Two.

Check back for updates to these predictions as we make our way to the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025.